Survey Shows Prabowo Subianto Ahead in Presidential Candidate Polls for 2024 Election in East Java

Editorial Team, CNBC Indonesia

Thursday, 12/10/2023 04:00 WIB

Photo: Illustration of Anies Baswedan (left), Prabowo Subianto (center), and Ganjar Pranowo (right). (Edward Ricardo/CNBC Indonesia)

Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia – The Indonesian Poltracking survey institute released a head to head survey of presidential candidates for the 2024 election in East Java Province. The survey shows that the Indonesian Forward Coalition presidential candidate Prabowo Subianto is ahead of the other two presidential candidates.

The survey was held from September 25 to October 1 2023 involving 1,000 respondents selected using the stratified multistage random sampling method. The respondents are East Java residents with the criteria of being over 17 years old and already having the right to vote.

The survey was conducted using the interview method involving trained surveyors. The margin of error for the survey is +/- 3.1% with a confidence level of 95%.

There are three simulations carried out head to head. The following is a head to head simulation of 3 presidential candidates for the 2024 election:

Simulation 1

Ganjar Pranowo 51.9
Anies Baswedan 17.6%
Don’t know/don’t answer 30.5%

Simulation 2

Prabowo Subianto: 53.4%
Anies Baswedan 17.9%
Don’t know/don’t answer: 28.7%

Simulation 3

Prabowo Subianto 42.3%
Reward Pranowo 40.5%
Don’t know/don’t answer: 17.2%

Indonesian Poltracking Research Director Arya Budi said that from the three simulations, Prabowo and Ganjar competed closely.

“In the three simulations where there is Anies, both are competitive, in the simulation where there is no Anies, both are also competitive,” said Arya.

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