Election day in the USA always falls on the first Tuesday after the first Monday in November. However, this year the Americans will not only elect a president, they will also elect their representatives in the House of Representatives, in some states and in the Senate. Many local elections are taking place at the same time.
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November 3 is the last day to express your opinion in the vote, but Americans, especially this year, make extensive use of the option of voting by mail and voting in the polling station in advance.
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Candidates
Incumbent President Donald Trump is seeking his re-election as the Republican Party. He formally launched the campaign with this goal on January 20, 2017, just a few hours after his inauguration until the first election period. Mike Pence is with him again in pairs, who took over the office of vice president four years ago after Trump’s side.
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His challenger from the Democratic Party is Joe Biden. He has spent 8 years as vice president under Barack Obama, having previously represented the state of Delaware in the Senate for 36 years. His “running mate” – a ballot partner running for vice president – is Senator Kamala Harris. She is the first dark-skinned woman (and the third woman ever) to run for vice president as a candidate for one of the largest parties. The previous two – Geraldina Ferrara in 1984 and Sarah Palin in 2008 – failed in the election.
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Candidates from so-called third parties and independent candidates also take part in the elections. We deal with them in more detail here:
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Surveys
270towin.com compares the results of a number of pre-election polls. In recent polls, when comparing only Republican and Democrat candidates, Joe Biden leads with an average support of 51.2%, Republican Trump lags behind 44.4%.
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In surveys covering all candidates, Biden leads by 8 percentage points, of the so-called third-party candidates, Libertarian Jo Jorgensen leads best with an average of 1.2%.
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A survey by the British weekly The Economist and yougov.co.uk shows that more Americans are choosing Biden not to overcome Donald Trump. The survey addressed a total of 1,500 registered voters. Of those who want to vote for Biden, 54% said they voted mainly against Trump, 44% preferred Biden as such. Among Trump’s voters, 81% are behind the current head of state, with only 19% voting mainly against Joe Biden.
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Bets
Unibet is offering a odds of 2.60 on Donald Trump’s victory, with Joe Biden winning now at 1.52. He sees it as even more likely that Biden will win by a simple sum of votes from all the U.S. territories in which the election is taking place (50 states and the capital, Washington DC). More votes for Biden are accompanied by a rate of 1.15, while Trump’s superiority in the number of votes is valued at a rate of 4.25.
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The odds of bookmakers in the Czech Republic tend to favor Biden, but the bookmakers themselves are betting on the re-election of Trump. The betting office Tipsport offers a odds of 2:28 on Trump’s victory and 1:55 on Biden’s, but 71% of tipsters bet on the victory of the current president. The total amount bet so far exceeds 54 million crowns. As of October 23, the amount has increased by approximately 7 million.
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Fortuna allows you to bet which of the two candidates of the largest parties will win the referendum, regardless of the profits of the voters. Joe Biden stands here with a odds of 1:10, a odds of 4.95 were announced for Trump.
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How the elections are going
The candidate who obtains the most votes in a state in the direct election of voters receives all the voters assigned to that state. Only in the states of Maine and Nebraska is a different system used. In these states, one voter is assigned to each “congressional district” – a constituency that elects its representative to the House of Representatives. There are two such districts in Main, and three in Nebraska. The other 2 voters will win for themselves the candidate with the most votes across the state. Thus, the total number of 4 voters for Maine and 5 for Nebraska is distributed.
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At least 270 voters are required to be elected president. Due to the voter system, it is possible in the US that a candidate who actually received fewer votes is elected president. This was also the case in the last presidential election, when Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton cast her vote with two million more voters than Trump.
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Voters will meet on December 14 to elect a future president and vice president in separate votes. Their term of office shall begin on 20 January.
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