"Surge in Air Conditioning Demand to Drive Global Electricity Consumption by 2030, Warns IEA"

The report says air conditioning will require an additional 697 terawatt-hours (TWh) of electricity by 2030, more than three times the additional demand in computer data centers and slightly less than electric cars, which are expected to will add 854 TWh more, the IEA said.

However, there will be a big difference in the demand for air conditioners, which means how unpredictable is the daily impact on the networks.

“It’s a blind spot for many decision makers. They do not see the importance of air conditioners as a driver of the world’s electricity consumption,” said Fatih Birol, head of the IEA, in an interview with the server. Financial Times.

“In the US and Japan, 90 percent of households have air conditioning, but only five percent in Nigeria, 15 percent in Indonesia and less than 20 percent in India. As income levels rise and the impact of climate change increases, people are buying air conditioners, which is the main driver,” said Birol.

According to the IEA, energy consumption for home air conditioning is expected to increase by 280 percent by 2050 under business-as-usual conditions based on current government policies. By the aforementioned year 2050, this would represent 14 percent of total energy demand in buildings, roughly doubling from less than seven percent today.

In another scenario, where governments fulfill their climate change commitments, energy use for air conditioning will rise by nearly 200 percent.

Most of the growth in air conditioning will occur in emerging markets and developing economies. However, the IEA warned that demand could be even greater if climate change causes more frequent heat waves.

In contrast, energy consumption in data centers, although it is now increasing, will have less impact on power grids. “There are more than 11,000 registered data centers around the world, which are often geographically based, so local impacts on electricity markets can be significant. But at the global level, data centers represent a very small portion of the total growth in electricity demand until 2030,” the group said.

The IEA said that global demand for electricity is growing at an annual rate of one thousand TWh. This is equivalent to an annual increase in electricity consumption by the rest of Japan, the Financial Times wrote.

Regarding the use of renewable resources, according to Birol, the energy transformation is slowing down in some countries, while in others it is accelerating. “Renewable capacity growth is 20 percent higher this year than it was in 2023. I don’t see any significant slowdown, and that’s because the move is driven by economics, not climate policy,” he said.

Global oil demand based on current government policies will peak at nearly 102 million barrels per day by 2030. By 2035, it will decline back to the 2023 level, which would be 99 million barrels per day. Lower demand in transport should contribute significantly to this, due to the increased use of electric cars.