A 28% increase in value was registered within the last 18 years, that is from 2007 to 2024, the fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) basket in supermarkets, when the average equivalent disposable income in real prices was at Greece in 2023 lower by 28.38% compared to that of 2010 (Eurostat data)!
However, this paradox does not seem to have dramatically affected the sales volume in the chains, as can be seen based on the data presented by Vaios Dimoragas, managing director of NielsenIQ, from the floor of the 15th IELKA Conference, since despite the large increase in prices, consumers in this period they filled the basket by just 2% less.
The decline in volume according to Mr. Dimoragas is explained on the basis of the huge economic crisis that we all experienced in the last decade, however according to him it is also an opportunity for the supermarket sector, as consumption is the key to the market in the coming years .
Because demand in supermarkets remains stable
The resistance shown by consumption, as shown by the course of sales in the last two years in the midst of a severe inflationary crisis, is explained by changes in purchasing behavior.
On the one hand, the growth rate of private label codes remains positive, with the category showing a market share of 24.7%, while at the same time offers and promotions on supermarket shelves register new highs at 57.9%.
The course of the market this year
With households gradually moving from a cautious consumption to a targeted consumption, the market, according to NielsenIQ data in 2024, from January 1 to November 3, recorded volume growth of 3.7% with revenue growth of 3.9 % and sectoral inflation at 0.2%.
In particular, in the current, last, quarter of this year (October 1 to November 3), sales increased by 4.5% in value, in volume by 4.8% and negative inflation at 0.3%.
By channel, from 1/1 to 6/10 in cash and carry the sign is negative as a decrease of 2.4% in value and 3.6% in volume was recorded, with sectoral inflation being kept low.
In traditional retail the increase in value is 4.3% and in volume 0.3% and in organized retail the revenue increased by 2.9% and the volume by 3.2%.
What will happen to prices in 2025
As far as the course of prices in supermarkets in 2025 is concerned, the unique poll conducted by Panagiotis Boretos, vice-president and managing director of Circana during yesterday’s IELKA conference was of great interest.
The metrics firm has created three scenarios: One scenario is a 1.3% price cut per unit, as prices from May onwards have fallen relative to the first half. The second scenario says that prices will remain stable. And the third scenario is a price increase of 2.9% per piece.
So Mr. Boretos asked the delegates, mainly executives of the retail trade and the food and daily use products industry, to vote live on the prevailing scenario.
The possibility of a price reduction over time had the fewest supporters, with most opting for price stability!
Based on the data processed by Circana, with the scenario of constant prices the market will show a 3.2% increase in value, as this year, while the sales volume, according to Mr. Boretto, is expected to move marginally upward.
In the third scenario of a 2.9% price increase, the market will go to 3.8%.
Source: ot.gr
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