Super Tuesday, the highly anticipated day of the Republican presidential nominating contests, is just around the corner. On March 5th, 15 states will hold their primaries, making it the most action-packed day of the primary season so far. While the early-voting states like Iowa and New Hampshire have received much attention, they have only accounted for a small fraction of the total delegates. On Super Tuesday alone, a whopping 854 delegates will be up for grabs, representing 35 percent of the total.
The big question on everyone’s mind is whether former President Donald Trump will sweep all 15 states. With his massive lead in the polls, it’s highly likely that he will emerge from Super Tuesday on the verge of securing the Republican nomination. However, there are a few contests where former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley may have a shot at victory.
According to polling averages from 538, which calculated data from six of the Super Tuesday states, Trump currently holds a commanding lead over Haley in each of them. In fact, he leads by at least 37 percentage points in California, Massachusetts, North Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, and Virginia. Trump also enjoys a substantial lead in states like Alabama, Maine, Minnesota, and Oklahoma, ranging from 42 to 30 points. Although there haven’t been recent polls in Alaska, Arkansas, and Colorado, based on similar demographics, it’s believed that Trump has solid leads in those states as well.
However, it’s important to note that the polling data may not be entirely reliable on Tuesday. Unlike the earlier primary states that received extensive polling coverage, the Super Tuesday states have been relatively neglected in recent weeks. This means that our perceptions of these states are based on outdated information. Furthermore, there’s a possibility that the polls could overstate Trump’s advantage in some areas.
Primary polling is notoriously challenging due to its dynamic nature. Candidates may drop out during the race, shifting voter sentiments before the next contest. Additionally, it’s difficult for pollsters to accurately predict the composition of the electorate. In this election, some Democratic-leaning independents may be voting in the GOP primary, but likely not for Trump. This adds another layer of uncertainty to the polling data.
To determine which states might be Trump’s strongest or weakest, three factors were considered: whether non-Republicans can vote in the GOP contest, the educational level of the electorate, and the religious identity of voters. So far, Trump has performed best among Republicans, voters without a college degree, and white evangelical Christians. Conversely, Haley has had more success among independents, college graduates, and voters who don’t identify as white born-again Christians.
Given these factors, it’s expected that Trump will perform exceptionally well in the Southern states on Super Tuesday. Alabama, Arkansas, Oklahoma, and Tennessee are all states with a significant white population that lacks a four-year degree and has a high proportion of white evangelical Protestants. Trump is also likely to do well in Texas and North Carolina, where there are sizable shares of white voters without a college degree or who identify as evangelical Christians.
Surprisingly, California and Minnesota are also expected to vote strongly for Trump. While there aren’t exit polls from 2016 in these states, they will use closed primaries, meaning that the primary voters will mostly be Republicans. Alaska and Utah are also likely to favor Trump due to their lower-turnout events restricted to registered Republicans.
On the other hand, Colorado, Massachusetts, Vermont, and Virginia could be Trump’s weakest states. Although he is still favored to win in these states, they have features that could benefit Haley. The Northeastern states have fewer white evangelical Christians and allow non-Republicans to vote. Additionally, they have a significant share of white voters with college degrees. Colorado and Virginia are also more accessible to non-Republicans.
While the polls may overshoot Trump’s position in some contests, it’s highly likely that he will sweep Super Tuesday. This outcome would further diminish Haley’s chances of securing the nomination. With her promise to stay in the race only until March 5th, it remains to be seen what her next move will be.
In conclusion, Super Tuesday is shaping up to be a pivotal day in the Republican presidential race. With a large number of delegates at stake, all eyes are on whether Trump will dominate all 15 states. While the polls may not be entirely reliable, they indicate a significant advantage for Trump. However, there are a few contests where Haley may have a fighting chance. As the nation waits in anticipation, the results of Super Tuesday will undoubtedly reshape the trajectory of the Republican nomination race.
