According to the latest serving of Super Bow 56 odds from Las Vegas, the Buffalo Bills are the newly-minted favorites to win Super Bowl 56, deposing the defending champions Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who ascended into top spot during the first half of the season after the Kansas City Chiefs’ early struggles persisted.
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Buffalo’s ascent marks one of the most prominent shifts in NFL betting markets since Week 1 as the NFL season hits the midway mark. A slew of top-rated sportsbooks have the Bills tipped anywhere between +525 and +600 in Super Bowl 56 futures. This means that a $100 bet on Buffalo would yield anywhere between $525 to $600 (depending on the chosen aforementioned odds) should the Bills pull off the feat on Sunday, February 13, 2022.
At the start of the season, the Bills were tipped as the third overall favorites after the Kansas City Chiefs and Tampa Bay Buccaneers. They were priced upwards of +1000 to win Super Bowl 56.
That market outlook was understandable considering the Buccaneers defeated the Chiefs 31-9 in Super Bowl 55. It’s common to see the top two teams emerge amongst the top two best bets the following season barring any major changes to their respective rosters that would alter their perceived value for free NFL picks.
The Bills finished runners-up to the Chiefs in the AFC Championship game, and along with the Green Bay Packers who finished runners up to the Buccaneers in the NFC Championship game, the pair were dubbed the next best bets. Others that were included in the top 10 were the Los Angeles Rams, Baltimore Ravens, Cleveland Browns and Dallas Cowboys, to name a few.
Aside from a Week 1 hiccup, Buffalo put in a commendable first half account. But that wasn’t enough to propel Sean McDermott’s side ahead of its peers. What did the trick? Well, nothing the Bills did to be fair.
Arguably, Buffalo leapfrog its biggest conference rival (the Chiefs) in the betting pecking order after Kansas City’s uncharacteristic start to the season extended beyond just the first couple of weeks. Twice the Chiefs fell below .500 (Week 5 and 7), and they were found propping up the AFC West table for the better part of the first eight weeks of the season. It’s been without a doubt, the worst start for Kansas City since the dawn of the Patrick Mahomes era in 2018.
Interestingly, not even Buffalo’s disastrous turnout in Jacksonville in Week 9, which saw the Bills succumb to a humiliating 9-6 loss to the woeful Jaguars, took the shine off of the Bills with market operators. Although Josh Allen and company did bounce back since then, they had a relatively straightforward assignment for Week 10. Dominating the New York Jets in a 45-17 is hardly a ringing endorsement, even though it sees Buffalo improve to a solid 6-3 record on the season.
What’s even more interesting is the fact that the Bills are favored over a rash of teams with better records on the season right now across both NFL conferences. Fact is the Bills aren’t the best team in the AFC according to win-loss records. That principality belongs to the Tennessee Titans, who continue to defy expectations and punch above their perceived weight class.
If the NFL season ended today, the Titans (8-2-0) would be the No.1 ranked team in the AFC with a bye into the divisional round of the playoffs. The Bills would be ranked No.2 overall and going into the wildcard round to face one of several dangerous floaters in the conference.
Why the Titans aren’t getting enough respect from the oddsmakers is anybody’s guess. They’re a distant sixth-best bet right now at +1200 to win Super Bowl 56.
The loss of Derrick Henry (foot injury) was a big blow for Mike Vrabel’s side, one that many thought would bring about the Titans’ demise. But it didn’t. That was two weeks ago and the Titans have since beaten the Los Angeles Rams and the New Orleans Saints to move to the top of the AFC.
Clearly, Henry’s absence isn’t quite the big deal many thought it was. His absence is proving to be the making of the Titans, dispelling, at the same time, any notion that their offense is one-dimensional and runs only to the pitter-patter beat of its star running back. This raises questions about Henry’s importance and significance. It also highlights just how brilliant the coaching staff is and how adaptable the team is to change – two characteristics that underscore their contender credentials.
The Green Bay Packers (8-2-0) are currently ranked first in the NFC, meaning they would get the first round bye in the playoffs if the season were to end today. And yet, the Packers are trailing the Bills in the betting too. They’re the fourth-best bet after the Bills, Buccaneers and Chiefs right now.
There’s still a long way to go to the final week of the season, and a lot can change between now and then. Whether the Bills will stay in favor, only time will tell.
