Super Bowl 2024 Bold Predictions: Patrick Mahomes Cooks NFL’s Top Zone Defense, Brock Purdy Fails vs. Blitz
Super Bowl LVIII is just around the corner, and the stage is set for an epic showdown between the defending champions, the Kansas City Chiefs, and the top-seeded San Francisco 49ers. With both teams looking strong, it’s anyone’s game. However, there are a few bold predictions that could shape the outcome of this highly anticipated matchup.
Patrick Mahomes, the reigning Super Bowl MVP, has been on fire in the postseason. He has yet to throw an interception in six consecutive playoff starts, setting a new record. Not only that, but Mahomes has led the Chiefs to victory in each of those games. At just 28 years old, he is set to become the first quarterback to start four Super Bowls before the age of 30.
Mahomes’ success extends beyond his impressive playoff streak. In their previous matchup against the 49ers in Week 7 of the 2022 season, Mahomes shredded their secondary, throwing for 423 yards and three touchdowns. He particularly excelled against their zone coverage, averaging 15.1 yards per pass attempt, the highest rate by any quarterback in the last four seasons.
The 49ers have relied heavily on their zone defense this postseason, with great success. However, no matter what defensive coordinator Steve Wilks throws at Mahomes, it’s likely that he will eventually find a way to overcome their vaunted zone coverage and lead the Chiefs to victory.
On the other side of the ball, 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy has been strong against the blitz all season. He has thrown 15 touchdowns and only two interceptions when facing the blitz, with an impressive 10.5 yards per pass attempt. However, Purdy has struggled under pressure, throwing seven interceptions in the regular season.
Enter the Chiefs’ defense, which has been nothing short of dominant this season. They rank second in scoring defense, fourth in total defense, and first in sack rate. Led by defensive tackle Chris Jones and cornerback McDuffie, the Chiefs’ defense has been impenetrable in the second half and especially the fourth quarter. In their last six games, they have allowed just one touchdown and 19 points in the second half, including no touchdowns and only six points in the fourth quarter.
Defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo has shown great flexibility in his game plans, adapting to each opponent’s strengths. He has been selective with manufacturing pressure, blitzing on only 30.4% of opponent dropbacks in the playoffs. Against the Ravens, he dialed up a season-high 12 defensive back blitzes, resulting in great results.
If the 49ers fall behind early, as they have in their previous playoff games, Purdy may struggle against the Chiefs’ blitz and throw multiple interceptions.
Another key factor in this game will be the game management of 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan. While he is known as an offensive wizard, his game management has been questionable at times. In his previous Super Bowl appearances as both an offensive coordinator and head coach, his teams failed to score any points in the fourth quarter or overtime, while their opponents scored a combined 46 points.
Shanahan’s play-calling issue becomes apparent when his teams achieve a lead. He tends to abandon the run game and rely heavily on passing plays. This time, with running back Christian McCaffrey, the 2023 NFL Offensive Player of the Year, in his arsenal, Shanahan is expected to call a more balanced offense late in the game.
On the Chiefs’ side, tight end Travis Kelce will be a key player to watch. Mahomes and Kelce have formed a formidable duo, with the best completion percentage and passer rating among quarterback-receiver duos in the last 15 postseasons. Kelce also holds the record for the most touchdowns by a quarterback-receiver duo in playoff history.
While the 49ers have been strong at defending tight ends, Kelce’s connection with Mahomes is unparalleled. Expect Kelce to have a big game, with over 100 receiving yards and a touchdown.
Finally, the 49ers’ historically poor run defense this postseason could be their downfall. They have allowed the most rushing yards per game entering a Super Bowl since the 1966 Green Bay Packers. However, they are expected to limit Chiefs running back Isiah Pacheco, as the Chiefs’ best offensive lineman, left guard Joe Thuney, is playing at less than 100% or may not play at all.
With these bold predictions in mind, Super Bowl LVIII is shaping up to be an exciting and closely contested matchup. Will Patrick Mahomes continue his postseason dominance and lead the Chiefs to back-to-back Super Bowl victories? Or will the 49ers’ strong defense and game management skills give them the edge? Only