It is therefore better to undertake activities outdoors than indoors. “Within the measures that apply, of course,” Alma Tostmann emphasizes. “If you receive that one visitor per day, you can still do this better outside than inside.”
Last summer, the number of corona infections was relatively low. But we cannot expect this to be the case this summer, says Tostmann. “We already entered the summer last year with relatively low contamination figures, because we got out of the first severe lockdown came. Mainly due to compliance with the measures, the number of infections was lower at the time. We cannot reason that the weather will improve on its own. We have to do something for it. “
Infectious disease modeler Quirine ten Bosch also emphasizes that it is not clear what causes a seasonal effect. “You cannot say anything about seasonal effects on the basis of one year of covid. That period is too short and there are too many other factors at play.”
Covid-19 and the flu season
The fact that summer makes covid-19 disappear is “a myth”, although seasons do have an influence, says Professor Martijn Hoogeveen of the Open University. “Covid-19 seems to be sticking to the flu season limits.”
Hoogeveen, together with his sister, internist Ellen Hoogeveen of the Jeroen Bosch Hospital, this analysis on the seasonality of Covid-19. This shows that the corona epidemic in the Netherlands coincides with other respiratory diseases such as cold to flu. “The pattern is very similar to that of the flu season.”
The data scientist therefore expects the virus to lie down in the coming weeks. “We have been looking at the regular flu season since 2016. That ends mid-April and starts mid-August. If the coronavirus now behaves seasonally again, I expect a drop in the number of infections by mid-April at the latest, just like last year. will increase again in mid-August, but group immunity through vaccinations could largely extinguish covid-19. “
Quirine ten Bosch, on the other hand, does not expect the virus to cease in the coming weeks. “We are dealing with a different corona variant that is more contagious. And the infection rates are still rising.”
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