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A patient lies in a hospital bed (symbolic image). © IMAGO/Frank Hoermann / SVEN SIMON
Cancer cases worldwide will rise rapidly by 2050. A study shows what influence gender and wealth have on the chances of recovery.
Queensland – Where we are born influences educational opportunities, career prospects and access to healthcare. A recent study by scientists at the University of Queensland in Australia shows that there are also regional differences when it comes to cancer. The chances of survival for cancer patients depend largely on the country in which they live.
Study: Almost 90 percent more cancer deaths predicted worldwide
The Australian researchers predict 35.3 million cases of cancer worldwide by 2050. This represents “a 76.6 percent increase over the estimate of 20 million in 2022,” the study said. By 2050, the number of cancer deaths will also rise to 18.5 million. This means that almost 90 percent more people will die than was estimated in 2022.
About the study
The study “Global Disparities of Cancer and Its Projected Burden in 2050” by the authors Habtamu Mellie Bizuayehu, Kedir Y. Ahmed, Getiye Dejenu Kibret et al. appeared in the scientific journal on November 5th Jama Network.
The research also shows what inequalities exist in terms of country, age, gender and the Human Development Index (HDI). This indicator, also known as the prosperity index, measures the development of a country based on life expectancy, education and standard of living. In countries with low HDI, Australian researchers expect cancer cases and cancer deaths to triple by 2050. In countries with a higher prosperity index, however, the increase is “moderate”.
Men are more likely to get cancer than women: the gap will become even larger in 2050
Men are already more likely to become ill today Krebs than women – and the gap is expected to widen by 2050. The Australian study predicts an 84.3 percent increase in cancer cases for men compared to 2022. Women will develop 68.5 percent more, which corresponds to a difference of 15.8 percentage points. According to the forecast, there will then be around 16 additional cases of cancer in men for every hundred women and men. The reasons for the higher cancer rates in men are not just due to biological differences.
Access to preventive examinations and health behavior also play a role. For example, men are more likely to consume alcohol and tobacco. Researchers emphasize the need to improve health literacy among men, as they are less likely to seek preventive care compared to women. However, there is also a lack of corresponding offers: “While women-specific cancer prevention programs such as breast and cervical cancer benefit women, there is a lack of comparable programs for men-specific cancers such as prostate and testicular cancer,” criticize the researchers.
Chances of survival after cancer: These factors play a role
For their study, the scientists analyzed 36 types of cancer from 185 countries worldwide. An important indicator of the aggressiveness of a type of cancer is the “Mortality to Incidence Ratio” (MIR). This value shows the relationship between the people who participate in one Illness sick and those who die from it. The higher the MIR, the higher the mortality. The highest MIR was found in pancreatic cancer (89.4 percent), the lowest in thyroid cancer (4.8 percent). The wealth of the country, gender and age influence who survives cancer and who does not.
In order to reduce the risk of cancer, every individual is required to do so. Science recommends healthy and balanced eating habits, physical activity, vaccinations and regular check-ups. Risk factors also include tobacco and alcohol consumption, obesity and UV radiation. According to data from the World Health Organization According to WHO, one in five people will develop cancer in their lifetime.
Cancer research is progressing – but not everyone benefits equally
Cancer research is working to detect the disease earlier and treat it better. But not all people benefit from it equally. The large regional differences found in the Australian study indicate poorer availability of prevention and early detection options in some countries. The authors therefore call on governments to improve health infrastructure, establish screening programs and expand universal health coverage to promote early detection.
Rwanda is a positive example of what such measures can achieve. Although the country in Central Africa has a low prosperity index, relatively few people die of cancer there. Researchers at the University of Queensland also attribute this to more accessible universal health insurance coverage. “Low HDI countries could learn from Rwanda to improve their efforts to expand universal health insurance coverage,” the study concludes. In the coming years There should even be a cancer vaccination.
