Strikes and hurricanes occur in US employment before the presidential election

Washington. U.S. employment data was hit hard by strikes and hurricanes in October, which could weigh on Democrats four days before a particularly tight presidential election, despite a stable unemployment rate at 4.1 percent.

Job creation fell sharply, according to Department of Labor data released this Friday.

The world’s largest economy added just 12,000 new jobs last month, below expectations and the 223,000 jobs in September, a revised figure. However, the stability of the unemployment rate remained stable at 4.1 percent, a positive sign.

The number of new contracts is much lower than expected, since analysts expected 110 thousand positions, according to the Market Watch consensus.

“It is likely that the estimates of salaried employment in certain sectors have been altered by the hurricanes” Helene y Miltonwhich devastated the southeast of the country at the end of September and beginning of October, the government explained in a press release.

The Department of Labor stressed that “employment decreased in the manufacturing sector due to strikes,” particularly the one carried out by 33,000 workers at the aeronautical manufacturer Boeing since September 13.

People on strike and those who were placed on temporary technical unemployment by their companies are counted as unemployed in the United States.

With the downward revision of the job creation figures for August and September (up to 78 thousand and 223 thousand respectively), there are 112 thousand fewer hires than reported.

Expectation

Four days into a particularly tense and tight duel between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump, there is no doubt that the Republican will benefit from this data to criticize the Democrats’ management. And the voters could follow him.

This “will probably weigh on the way people perceive economic conditions,” Rubeela Farooqi, chief economist at High Frequency Economics, told AFP, noting that, “more generally, families do not feel the benefits of a market.” of work that remains solid and a weak unemployment rate.”

“Job growth should rebound in November as our recovery and reconstruction efforts continue after the hurricanes,” predicted President Joe Biden, who also congratulated the Boeing machinists union and its employees, who on Monday will vote whether to accept a new labor agreement offer presented by the aeronautical manufacturer.

Republicans were quick to react to a report on employment that is for them “a catastrophe and definitively reveals to what extent Kamala Harris destroyed (the) economy,” in the words of Karoline Leavitt, press attaché for the Trump campaign.

“Working families have been defrauded by the Harris-Biden economic program. Kamala destroyed the economy. “President Trump will fix this problem,” he added.

Democrats are struggling to convince voters of their government’s economic performance after years of inflation and high interest rates.

Even the “American dream” of buying a home is now out of reach for many young families.

Destroys

The hurricanes Helene y Miltonwhich reached the southern United States at the end of September and beginning of October, caused significant damage and caused more than 200 deaths. Part of the economic activity in the affected regions is paralyzed.

Aubrey Anderson is president of water ride company Zen Tubing in North Carolina, a region particularly hard hit by Helene.

“It is the first time that water has damaged the company’s infrastructure,” the businesswoman told AFP, and anticipated that her Asheville branch will remain closed in 2025.

That means that in spring and summer it will only need half of the hundred employees it has during that period of the year.

The employment data also matters for the Federal Reserve (Fed), the US central bank, which hopes to reduce its interest rates again to boost the economy at its meeting next Tuesday and Wednesday, a day after the vote.

The Fed will not only consider this employment report but “the set of labor market data, which shows a controlled decline in job creation and an absorption of labor supply,” said Lydia Boussour, an economist at HEY.