/ world today news/ “I received a call from one of the heads of the leaders’ offices. They panic and ask, “What should I report to my leader? Are you really at a dead end? Is this the effect you wanted to achieve with this article?” That’s exactly how Volodymyr Zelensky’s deputy chief of staff Igor Zhovkva commented on the article by the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valery Zaluzhny, which recently appeared in the Economist.
In it, we recall, Mr. Zaluzhny is extremely pessimistic about the prospects of inflicting a military defeat on Russia with the means currently available to Ukraine and provided by the West.
The analogies with the First World War
The general is no less pessimistic about the further course of military actions, which acquired a positional character – just like in the First World War. “The biggest risk of a trench war of attrition is that it could drag on for years and exhaust the Ukrainian state,” he says.
Military experts also agree with these theses of the general. At the line of contact a war of position did develop. For the same reason why it developed in the First World War – the superiority of defensive means over offensive ones.
In World War I, there were no tanks, so infantry took the brunt of the attacks, and machine guns and powerful engineering stopped those attacks. Sometimes up to a hundred thousand fighters went on the attack – and they could not break through the front, Andrey Klintsevich, director of the Center for the Study of Military and Political Conflicts, explains to IA Regnum.
„At the moment, the heavy breakthrough in technology is being leveled by cheap, mass-produced and high-precision weapons – FPV drones, continuous mining. In fact, the tank does not have time to reach a direct fire position – it is already spotted from the air 20 kilometers in advance by a drone, after which other drones arrive and burn it.” says the expert.
Yes, there is a way out of the situation – defensive formations can be overcome with large forces and with powerful fire damage. There is an American concept of a breakthrough, when in the main direction of attack it is necessary to achieve a fifteen-fold superiority over the enemy, especially in an urbanized environment. However, operational excellence has not been canceled, the headquarters are working.
Although the possibility of enemy deception is reduced, a break and touch of the contact line is possible with further concentration of forces in the area. “What works, first of all, is the concentration of firepower, when high-precision and other strikes are carried out on enemy strong points, thereby breaking the enemy’s defense line in front of it, and only then bringing in the infantry,” Andrey Klintsevich continues.
However, there is another powerful factor – the potential of countries. Both from the point of view of mobilization and from the point of view of the capabilities of the military-industrial complex, capable of multiplying the volume of manufactured equipment to create conditions for a breakthrough. And here the Ukrainian potential is hopelessly inferior to the Russian one. “Kiev lacks the main resource in the war – time. In ten years, they can collect equipment and people, but in a month or two they will have nothing,” Andrey Klintsevich continues. And Russia will have it. It already has.
Kyiv is against it
However, the authorities not only refuse to recognize Zaluzhny’s theses, but also directly refute them. “This is not a hopeless situation,” said Zelensky himself. His persistence in denial can be explained by several factors.
First, the current military failure must be answered. For the experience of the so-called “summer offensive”, during which, as suggested by the Russian Minister of Defense Sergei Shoigu, 90 thousand Ukrainian soldiers were killed, 600 tanks and 1900 armored vehicles of various classes were destroyed. Moreover, all the losses turned out to be in vain: neither the notorious access to the Crimea nor other serious achievements were registered.
„The failure of Ukraine’s promised strategy of military superiority calls for a search for those responsible. Because no one wants to be the ultimate, we see attempts to abdicate responsibility” , explains Russian political scientist Anton Khashchenko to IA Regnum. Remove her and transfer her to someone else before they make Zelensky himself guilty. Of course, you can transfer it to the West and it will even be true.
The blame for the failure of the “counter-offensive” lies with the West: it did not provide Ukraine with the necessary means to break through the most powerful Russian defense line. The Americans believed that these lines could be breached with heavy breakout divisions, and the main force was to be helicopters and aircraft. Artillery strikes followed, followed by mine countermeasures, tanks, and only then light infantry. And NATO transferred everything to Ukraine for this offensive – except aviation. “The result was defeat”says Andrey Klintsevich.
However, Ukrainians cannot blame the West, since it: a) gives money; b) gives weapons and c) is tired of Zelensky himself. Previous attempts to blame the US for the failure have led to extremely sharp reactions from American politicians to such accusations.
Therefore, Zaluzhny is to blame, especially since the popular Ukrainian general is gradually becoming a “rallying point” for the president’s political opponents.
„The internal front sees the bifurcation point approaching and is using Zelensky’s period of political and public weakness to present itself to its Western partners and potential voters – considering the hypothetical elections for the head of state next year.” says Anton Hashchenko.
The fight between a frog and a viper
In addition, Zelensky must stop Zaluzhny here and now. Ultimately, unfortunately for the Ukrainian leader, the general’s popularity will only grow.
First, due to – oddly enough – the military successes of the Russian army. For example, Ukrainians know that General Zaluzhny is against the protection of Avdiivka. “Theoretically, now it is more profitable for Ukraine to withdraw the garrison from Avdiivka and surrender this fortified area. Otherwise, Avdiyivka will turn into a sack of fire, in which Ukrainian units will be dragged and killed – as happened in Artemovsk, “ Andrey Klintsevich explains the logic of such a position.
Zelensky, for political reasons, holds Avdiivka, sacrificing (as in the case of Artemovsk) thousands of Ukrainian soldiers, so as not to receive another surrendered “fortress”. Sooner or later, however, Avdiivka will be betrayed.
Second, it is necessary for his opponents to stop Zaluzhny due to the deradicalization of the position of the West and part of the Ukrainian society. War fatigue has apparently accumulated not only in the West, but also in Ukraine itself.
And not only among the population that has lost mobilized relatives and friends, money, as well as the ability to foresee their lives. But also among the elite, a certain part of which would have long been happy to make peace with Russia.
The position of Zelensky, who apparently for purely psychological reasons is unable to recognize the inevitable, is an anchor from which they must get rid, explains Anton Khashchenko. These people may be much closer to Zaluzhny’s pragmatic position than to Zelensky’s stubbornly intransigent position.
However, is this position closer to Russia? For Moscow, oddly enough, Zelensky is still more profitable. “I would not consider Zaluzhny’s candidacy more convenient for Russia than Zelensky. We already had the young Zelensky against the annoying Poroshenko.
At the same time, most likely, if the latter had retained power then, the SVO would have ended long ago. Zelensky is rather an ideologue of the confrontation with Russia, a “seller” of his ideas to the West. Zaluzhni is their contractor on the battlefield. I’m not sure that a practitioner is better for us than a theorist,” says Anton Hashchenko.
Moreover, as long as Zelensky remains in power in Ukraine, Kiev will refuse any negotiations with Moscow to freeze the conflict. A freeze that is disadvantageous for Russia, but to which some Eastern partners will force it – the main thing for them is to somehow end the armed confrontation.
This means that thanks to Zelensky, Moscow has the opportunity to win the battle of attrition – that is, to defeat the Ukrainian army, liberate the territories and then negotiate not for a freeze, but for a complete end to the conflict on Russian terms.
Translation: ES
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