According to strategists at Morgan Stanley, the American stock market has not yet taken into account the risk of a recession in the United States and investors should focus on a portfolio of defensive stocks, primarily from securities of industrial and energy companies, as well as companies in the healthcare sector. writes Bloomberg.
The Fed is expected to pause its rate hike cycle or may change its hawkish policy and begin lowering rates, the publication writes. The US stock market has risen 16% this year as measured by the S&P500 index on expectations that the US will achieve a soft landing of the economy, that is, a slowdown in inflation without significant consequences for the labor market and other areas, and the Federal Reserve will stop raising rates.
However, investors in the American stock market this year may be disappointed, as economic growth in the United States this year will be below expectations, the bank believes. According to strategists at Morgan Stanley, stock markets do not yet reflect the risk of recession in the American economy.
In the current situation, investors in the stock market should pay attention to the industrial sector and energy. The healthcare sector could also perform well given its defensive properties and potential for further growth, especially after the sector underperformed the market this year, the bank said.
Earlier, Morgan Stanley warned that downside risks to the American stock market could persist throughout the fall and possibly into the winter. The bank’s experts predict that the S&P500 index will end the current year near the level of 3,900 points. This is approximately 12.5% below the index’s closing level on Friday, September 8.
Meanwhile, Oppenheimer expects the S&P 500 index to rise to 4,900 points by the end of the year, which is the most optimistic forecast among strategists surveyed by Bloomberg. Goldman Sachs Group strategist David Kostin predicts the S&P 500 will rise to 4,700 in the next 12 months.
2023-09-11 12:26:03
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