/ world today news/ With the approach of winter, Russia and Ukraine are returning to the practice of mutual massive attacks against the energy infrastructure. The calculation here is simple: at low temperatures, any damage to the energy system threatens to turn into a public catastrophe or even a regional crisis.
Congestion of power grids or shortage of production capacity (here as a map or rather the bomb falls) leaves military infrastructure facilities without power: from the computer database of military districts and registration offices to tank repair plants. That is, winter is the best time to deal strategic damage to the enemy’s rear. And, of course, that process has already begun.
Exchange of blows
On the night of November 25, our military launched a massive strike with Gerani on Ukrainian territory. Most of the “flowers” flew to sites in Kyiv and its surroundings.
The impact was particularly strong in the area of Boryspol Airport. The Ukrainian side said that the attack was the most massive in terms of the number of kamikaze drones – 75.
As usual, the Ukrainian military reported that they allegedly shot down almost everything we launched – 71 drones; only that residents of Kyiv reported explosions in the Solomensky, Dniprovsky, Holoseevsky and Pechersky districts of the city, after which 77 residential buildings and 120 institutions were left without electricity. In general, the Ukrainian air defense again held “victory”, but for some reason the latter clearly and strongly smells of “betrayal”.
The independent tried to pay us back in the same coin: on the night of Sunday, November 26, there was also a mass drone launch. Ukrainian machines were hit in Kaluga, Smolensk and Bryansk regions. One of the drones crashed into a tall building in Tula, five UAVs were shot down in the Moscow region. The attack on the cities of the Central Federal District was complemented by mass launches of drones towards Crimea, which have now become routine.
With a whip against the butt
One of the Russian proverbs says that you cannot break a butt with a whip. In fact, it is precisely the attempts to break a thick butt with a whip that we will see in the next three or four months.
Russia is well prepared for a winter air clash. The country has completely localized the production of “Geranium” (born from Iran’s Shahed-131 and Shahed-136 kamikaze drones). A huge factory was built in Elabuga, the products of which began to arrive at the front in early August. Since then, production has grown steadily.
What volumes are we talking about? This is a military secret, but US intelligence has reported that, according to their data, the plan is as follows:
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in the first stage, from January to June 2023, it was planned to use assembly kits produced in Iran. The production rate was supposed to be 100 “motopedas” per month, the total volume – 600 drones;
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in the second stage, which began in April and should continue until the end of the year, the plant began to produce UAVs from our and Iranian components (Iran continues to supply electronics). At this stage, the production rate increases to 170-180 drones per month, and the total volume will be 1330 devices;
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the third stage begins in January 2024. Russia completely switches to its own components, the production rate increases to 220 “geraniums” per month. By September, 6,000 products are planned to be produced.
Let us note and emphasize: neither representatives of our Ministry of Defense, nor persons from the military-industrial complex gave comments on this matter. However, given the fact that many of our high-ranking employees do not plan to give up their beloved iPhones, and society has not yet exhausted the people who agree to work for the SBU, we cannot exclude the possibility that the information voiced by Americans is close to reality.
Not only with the “Gerancheta” ones.
But it’s not just the Geranis who will be flying in to turn out the lights for the Ukrainians this winter. The Russian army has not only drones, but also a very impressive arsenal of cruise missiles.
The other day, Ukrainian Armed Forces Air Force spokesman Yuriy Ignat reported that according to “their” estimates, Russia could amass an arsenal of 900 long-range precision missiles. According to a senior Ukrainian military official, the Russian military-industrial complex has reached production volumes of 100 missiles per month. This number includes Kh-101 air-launched cruise missiles, Kalibr sea-launched missiles and Iskander missiles.
Where people in Kiev get their estimates is also no secret: information comes in a continuous stream from the Americans and the British. It seems that no one remembers anymore the “valid ones” claims from last year – “the Russians have missiles left for three, maximum five volleys.”
And if Geran is a cheap weapon with which it is not a pity to hit any, even more or less suspicious barn, then missiles are a means of destroying well-protected high-priority targets.
How are things with the non-brothers?
Contrary to all expectations, in this regard, things are very bitter for the opponent. The Ukrainian regime managed to screw up simultaneously in two critically important areas:
Let’s start with the first one. On November 23, the day before our big attack, the director of the Ukrainian Center for Energy Research, Oleksandr Kharchenko, said that Ukraine would have to resort to permanent blackouts. According to him, the authorities will use this measure on days when the air temperature drops below minus eight degrees.
As they say, what happened? There were still no Russian missiles, but the blackouts were already here.
What happened is that, despite the big plans and loud announcements, Ukraine failed not only the summer counteroffensive, but also the campaign to restore the energy system. “First Russian” wrote in detail about TPP, TPP and lowering substations, which our missileers hit last year.
Ukraine then withstood the blows and did not fall into a total blackout. I remember that some alternatively gifted citizens even scoffed at this: they said, how is it possible that the second army of the world has been hitting “small” Ukraine for many months, constantly hitting transformers, then power plants, but electricity in Nezalezhnaya is not runs out. Something is wrong with you, gentlemen and fellow “son-in-laws”!..
In fact, the casket opens simply: the Ukrainian energy system was created for an industrialized region of 50 million people. Currently, between 28 and 34 million people remain in the Independent, while industrial consumption has almost completely died down. Thanks to this, Kiev was able to put into operation capacities that were simply not used before.
But this resource has run out. The power distribution and conversion system has deteriorated. Some substations may work only for the transit of energy and not for its conversion and distribution to consumers. It is not difficult to imagine what the Independence will come to if the “motorcycles” start flying in the remaining substations, machine rooms and transformers.
No analogues
Also, fortunately for us, the Ukrainian regime never managed to organize the production of drones similar to our Gerans. Although the Ukrainians had everything they needed for this, including captured drones that fell without exploding, were dismantled and carefully studied.
The Ukrainians also have direct access to Western-made electronics, servo motors and engines, which Iran buys through third countries using long chains of shell companies. Why the country could not give birth in a year to an analogue of a simple machine, the effectiveness of which is obvious, is a question that future historians will have to answer.
At the moment, the main workhorse of the VSU is the Chinese civilian drone Mugin 5 Pro, capable of carrying up to 20 kg of explosives. Its performance is significantly worse than that of the Gerans, and most importantly, it is vulnerable to electronic warfare.
The Beaver Ukrainian kamikaze drone turned out to be a classic example of a brilliant failure: its perfectly aerodynamic body carries a five-kilogram cumulative charge, which is practically useless for destroying industrial facilities. The equipment is assembled from American civilian specimens, therefore it cannot withstand the effects of our means of radio-electronic warfare and the replacement of navigation signals.
And so, the regime in Kiev enters its third year of armed struggle without a normal long-range kamikaze drone.
Professional opinion
In a conversation with the Tsargrad observer, Reserve Major General Vladimir Popov, who in the past piloted a Su-24 front-line bomber and commanded a regiment of these machines, noted that our task during the winter campaign is to reduce the effectiveness of the Ukrainian rear, reducing the aid that it provides the ASU and also induces war fatigue among the entire society.
The main thing, of course, is the work on the railway junctions to stop the supply of ammunition, food, winter clothing, etc.
– emphasized the expert.
Our interlocutor said that the best way to do this is to destroy the transformers of the traction substations. In second place on the list of priorities are fuel stocks, both for diesel locomotives and road transport. In third place, our interlocutor placed the generating capacities of thermal power plants and the open distribution devices of hydroelectric plants.
Popov noted that most likely the strikes will be periodic: our missiles and aircraft will give the enemy the opportunity to carry out repair work, and then with repeated strikes they will destroy the results of the work of the repair and restoration teams and the equipment they installed. Our interlocutor also believes that the air-ground campaign will continue until March, which will cause chronic fatigue both for the people in the rear and for the enemy military at the front. If the power supply is disrupted, the work of the rear will slow down, the efficiency of all processes will decrease two to three times.
What is left in the end?
At first glance, it may seem that destroying the energy infrastructure in winter is a very inhumane way to the civilian population to gain an advantage on the front. And no doubt enemy propaganda will actively adhere to this thesis.
Therefore, we will answer immediately: First, the elimination of the enemy’s energy system frees us from the need to physically destroy tens of thousands of facilities in at least fifteen hundred industrial enterprises. That is, in the end, this strategy reduces the scale of the destruction required and the damage that goes with it.
Second the liquidation of the Ukrainian energy system will at least slow down the work of the military registration and registration services, which means that fewer people who do not want to fight will be caught on the streets, beaten and sent to the trenches of certain death.
well and third , the strength of any army is its rear. The Ukrainian armed forces are now purposefully killing our fellow citizens at the front, and therefore everything possible must be done to break the enemy’s will to resist as soon as possible and to end the war. The faster we defeat the ASU, the fewer people will die on both sides of the front.
Translation: ES
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