– It is a solid lead, so something dramatic is needed, says the election researcher about the government’s chances of re-election.
There are now six weeks left until the parliamentary elections, and the polls show that Prime Minister Erna Solberg (H) has a big job ahead of her if she is to be re-elected.
According to the website Poll of polls shows the average of the national parliamentary polls in July, a clear red-green majority.
– It is a solid lead for the red-greens, and it is becoming less and less likely that there are any chances that the bourgeoisie can get a majority. Then something really dramatic is needed, says election researcher Johannes Bergh at the Department of Social Research to Nettavisen.
The Labor Party, the Center Party and the Socialist People’s Party get a total of 93 seats (85 is the majority) in the polls, while the bourgeois government parties, including the FRP, only get 58.
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– Completely unusual event
The red-green parties have long had a majority in the Storting polls, but in July the parties also increased their lead over the bourgeois parties.
– That situation has solidified and become even clearer, Bergh states.
The background figures for three of the four polls in July show that the red-green parties are stealing 184,000 voters from the bourgeois compared to the previous parliamentary elections. This is an increase of 8,000 voters from the June polls.
The online newspaper’s June poll: Launched himself as Prime Minister: This is how voters reacted
– For the bourgeoisie to be able to get a majority, both the Liberal Party and KrF must get over the barrier, and the Progress Party must win back voters that they have lost to the Center Party, says the election researcher, and points out:
– So it takes a big voter movement for that to happen, and it does not happen that often, unless it is a completely unusual event or something very special that happens.
184,000 voters correspond to around six percent of the approximately three million votes cast in the parliamentary elections in 2017.
– The parties are struggling
The largest party in July was the Labor Party, with an average support of 24.3 percent. While Solberg’s party, the Conservatives, got a result of 20 percent.
Then come the Center Party (17.6 percent), FRP (9.9 percent) and SV (7.7).
In the polls, both MDG (4.5 per cent) and Rødt (5.6 per cent) are above the threshold, while the government parties KrF (3.2 per cent) and Venstre (3.5 per cent) are below.
– The bourgeois parties are struggling and experiencing government wear and tear, and a picture has perhaps been established that there is a decline and that people want a new government, Bergh says.
Other parties, the parties that are not represented in the Storting, received an average of 3.9 per cent in July.
– Is absolutely possible
By far the most voters are the Center Party, which steals from Erna and co, which takes 62.3 percent of the voters from the bourgeoisie – a total of 115,000. While the Labor Party secures 35,000 of the bourgeois voters, which is the highest number since January 2020.
Red takes 22,000 bourgeois voters, SV 7000 and MDG 5000, according to Poll of polls.
“The bourgeoisie must zero (almost) all these transitions to win four new years, in addition to mobilizing its own fence-sitters and strengthening itself among voters who did not vote in 2017”, writes the website.
– Will the bourgeois parties manage to win back some of the voters from the red-greens?
– They can probably manage to win back someone. There is always some dynamism during an election campaign where there are a good number of voters who are on the move and who have not yet made up their minds. So it is certainly possible that the bourgeoisie can make a good election campaign, but since the lead is now so great for the red-greens, more than a good election campaign is needed. A violent mobilization is needed, Bergh states.
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– No Listhaug effect
The Conservatives also declined in July compared with the previous month, from an average of 21.6 percent to 20 percent. The decline is due to an increased loss of voters to the Labor Party (9000 more than in June), and that they get fewer voters from Frp.
At the same time, the background figures show that the Labor Party is losing 25,000 voters to the Center Party, which is the lowest since August a year ago. FRP loses particularly many voters to Other parties, a total of 46,000 voters (13,000 more than in June).
– Sylvi Listhaug has previously managed to get a lot of attention to the party, so it is not inconceivable during the election campaign that it may have an effect. But so far there is nothing to indicate that her proposal and as party leader has had an effect, says Bergh.
Also read: Listhaug calls a “cheeky monkey”: – I did not believe my own eyes
Red gets voters from all other parties, and most from the Labor Party (24,000) and the bourgeois parties (22,000). This could mean a large parliamentary group for the party, which has never had more than one parliamentary representative.
– Will be another drama
But even though it is now time for a change of government, there is great tension related to which parties will rule together after the election.
– The parties have completely different ideas about which parties will form a government, so there will be another drama around it even after the election if there is a red-green government, Bergh says.
– But Jonas Gahr Støre is therefore best placed to become the country’s next prime minister?
– Absolutely, absolutely, says the election researcher.
The Storting election will be held on Monday 13 September.
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