Storm Carlotta could evolve into a Category 2 hurricane; SMN forecasts heavy rains in four states

Tropical Depression Three-E quickly evolved into Tropical Storm Carlotta. PHOTO: Conagua

This Wednesday, July 31, the Tormenta Tropical Carlotta in it Peacefuloff the coast of Mexico, and according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) It is expected that on Thursday afternoon, August 1, it could evolve into a Category 1 hurricane in the Saffir-Simpson scale.

For its part, the National Meteorological Service (SMN) Mexico reported that at 6:00 p.m. on Wednesday, the center of Carlotta was located approximately 515 kilometers southwest of Playa Pérula, Jalisco, and 535 km southwest of Manzanillo, Colima.

The tropical storm registers maximum sustained winds of 75 km/h, gusts of 95 km/h and a displacement to the northwest at 19 km/h, towards the central Pacific, so that it will gradually move away from the coasts of Baja California Sur.

The SMN estimates that Carlotta could reach Category 2 status during the course of Saturday, August 3However, its trajectory indicates that by then the center of the cyclone will be just over a thousand kilometers from the Mexican coast, so it will not represent a serious danger for coastal cities.

SMN expects Carlota to gain strength between Thursday and Friday, but it will move away from Mexican territory. PHOTO: Conagua

For the night of this Wednesday and early Thursday morning, their Cloudy bands will cause rain intense punctual in the states of Nayarit, Jalisco, Colima and Michoacan, warned the SMN.

National Meteorological Service models indicate that Carlotta will continue to move towards open sea and will weaken to Category 1 on Sunday, August 4.

If these forecasts are fulfilled, Carlotta will become the first hurricane of the 2024 season in the Pacific, since Aletta the Bud They did not go beyond a tropical storm.

The SMN reported that it is also monitoring a low pressure zone in the Pacific Ocean, with a 10% probability of developing into a tropical cyclone within 48 hours. This is located 730 km south-southeast of the mouth of the Suchiate River, and is moving west-northwest at a speed of between 16 and 24 km/h.

The National Hurricane Center estimates that Carlotta will reach hurricane strength on Thursday. PHOTO: NHC

The agency in charge of the National Water Commission (Conagua) warned that “the rainfall could cause puddles and flooding in areas of the aforementioned states.

This tropical storm arrives a week after the formation of Bud, the second of the season, and almost a month after Aletta, the first of this period in the Pacific Ocean.

In May, the National Weather Service forecast up to 41 named cyclones in the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans during the 2024 season, with at least five expected to impact the country.

For the Pacific, they forecast 15 to 18 named systems, of which 8 to 9 would be tropical storms, 4 to 5 would be category 1 or 2 hurricanes, and 3 to 4 would be category 3 to 5 hurricanes.

So far, only Hurricane Beryl, a Category 2 hurricane, has hit the Yucatan Peninsula, affecting mainly Quintana Roo, where it caused minor material damage and no fatalities.