Hong Kong stocks rose 436 points on Friday, the eve of the Mainland’s National Day holiday, to close at 17,809 points, but the transaction volume was only 67.7 billion, indicating that investors were not willing to buy goods and were just speculating during the Mainland’s National Day Golden Week.
The Hang Seng Index has been unable to return to 18,000 points despite its hard work. Retail investors are really afraid of stock trading and tend to be conservative. Chen Bo, a veteran in the stock market, asked if he wanted to find some stocks that were not outstanding but had low risks. He looked at China Mobile (941) and SMIC (0981).
I would say that the two stocks are quite different. China Mobile belongs to the stable group and has become a very hard-hit stock in the declining market in the past year. China Mobile’s profits have grown slowly over the past three years. Last year’s net profit was 125.5 billion yuan, an increase of 8%. Interim net profit in the first half of this year was 76.2 billion, an increase of 8.4%. To be honest, China Mobile is this kind of stock. It is stable and its net profit is slowly growing. There will be no big surprises.
China Mobile’s 1-year chart.
However, China Mobile has increased its dividend payments in recent years, which has attracted more people to support it. The closing price on Friday was 65.7 yuan, the current price dynamic price-earnings ratio is 9.9 times, and the dynamic interest rate is 7.1%. The advantage of buying to earn interest is that the risk is not high. If you buy it at the current price, it will rise by 10% to 72.3 yuan in the mid-term. You can sell it first when it is in place. If it is not in place, you can sit back and wait for interest collection. You can attack when you advance, and you can defend when you retreat.
SMIC is completely different. It is a growth stock. Its net profit last year was US$1.82 billion, an increase of 6.8%. Net profit declined in the first half of this year to only US$630 million, a year-on-year decrease of 34%. This is related to the oversupply of the global chip industry and the difficulty in doing business.
However, although SMIC’s stock price retreated, it did not fall much and outperformed the market. The closing price on Friday was 20.05 yuan, mainly because investors are optimistic about the mainland chip market and believe that under the pressure of the United States, China will vigorously strengthen the localization of chips, and mainland companies will also use more domestic chips, which will be beneficial to SMIC.
In addition, Huawei has launched a new mobile phone that contains domestically produced 5G chips, which are widely rumored to be manufactured by SMIC. However, Huawei’s recently launched new products all use domestically produced chips. It is estimated that next year it will increase the purchase of domestically produced chips and abandon the use of U.S. chips. Qualcomm chips. SMIC mainly deals with Huawei, a big customer, and it is estimated that there will be a lot of business in the future, so the prospects are promising.
SMIC 1-year chart.
Therefore, SMIC is also a stock that you can pay attention to. You can place a bet at the current price of 20.05 yuan, and then wait for a retreat of 5% to 19 yuan before placing a bet. You will have 20% room for growth. In contrast, the potential return of buying SMIC may be higher than that of China Mobile, but the risk is also higher.
(Lu Yuren’s “Financial High Tea” column is published exclusively on “Pomegranate Station” every Monday to Friday. You are welcome to subscribe to Pomegranate Station to receive it)
Riku Yujin
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The market has been weak recently, and stock investors are complaining of toothache, because many of the stocks they hold are close to one-year lows, with only a few exceptions, such as oil stocks.
CNOOC (0883) has performed bravely recently. It hit a one-year high of 14.28 yuan on September 15 and has retreated to around 13.5 yuan recently. A friend drank some CNOOC oil and asked me if it was good to eat. I suggest he look at the position and reduce his holdings.
One-year chart of CNOOC.
CNOOC’s current dynamic price-to-earnings ratio is 4.5 times, and its dynamic interest rate is about 9%. The valuation is not expensive. However, the recent rise in CNOOC is mainly in sync with the rise in global oil prices.
Saudi Arabia’s reduction in oil production has pushed oil prices upward. The current price of New York oil is US$90.2, which is quite close to the one-year high of US$91.8. Although oil prices hit a high of $117 in May last year, interest rates were low at that time and the macroeconomic environment was different from today. So don’t expect oil prices to go above $100 again. It is estimated that the current price is close to the high. After winter, it may relapse, unless there is a very cold winter.
In other words, the international oil prices that support CNOOC’s rise may be near the top, so CNOOC’s price may also be near the top in the short to medium term. If CNOOC rises above 14 yuan and reaches a level of around 14.1 yuan, you can consider reducing your holdings. The interim dividend issued by CNOOC has been closed for transfer on September 15, and shareholders can already receive an interim dividend of 0.59 yuan.
A friend listened to my suggestion earlier and bought CNOOC when it returned to 11 yuan. If he sold it at 14 yuan, he would get a 32% return with buried dividends, which is quite pleasant, so he may consider buying it.
(Lu Yuren’s “Financial High Tea” column is published exclusively on “Pomegranate Station” every Monday to Friday. You are welcome to subscribe to Pomegranate Station to receive it)
2023-09-29 08:50:15
#investment #buy #SMIC #China #Mobile
