What was added yesterday will be removed from the AEX this morning. The results are not great, the opening indication points to a decline of 0.3%.
This is how the markets stand now:
- European futures point slightly (0.3%) down
- A lot of red on the signs in Asia, especially in Hong Kong (-2.5%). The Nikkei in Japan is just keeping its head above water (+0.1%)
- Wall Street started the week without conviction: S&P500 -0.12%, Nasdaq -0.4%
- Eurodollar remained stable at $1.0849
- The oil price (WTI) is again above $78
- Bitcoin is on a fantastic run, but took a small step back last night
- Gold has been rising again since last week, a technical breakout according to Royce Tostrams
The National People’s Congress has started in China. Prime Minister Li Qiang set the growth target for the Chinese economy as expected back to 5%. Ambitious, but he made it less clear how this can be achieved with the current sputtering under the hood and that partly explains the weak sentiment in Asia.
Wall Street wasn’t looking forward to it yesterday either, but the chip stocks don’t care much about it and are having their own party. Super stock Super Micro has already risen more than 250% this year and added another 18% yesterday when it was announced that it would be included in the S&P 500.
Nvidia almost routinely achieved a new milestone in its valuation. After previously passing Amazon and Alphabet, it also passed the global number three in stock market value, the Saudi Aramco.
#Nvidia leaps Saudi Aramco to be world’s 3rd most-valuable firm. Chipmaker rallies 70% in 2024, adding $883bn in value. Now worth $2.2tn vs Aramco’s $2.01tn. Stock trails only Apple and Microsoft in market capitalization. pic.twitter.com/Gmld6HHOEG
— Holger Zschaepitz (@Schuldensuehner) March 4, 2024
Magnificent Seven colleague Tesla, on the other hand, is having a hard time this year and yesterday also appeared to be struggling with disappointing sales figures in China. The share lost another 7%.
Now that most companies have published their annual figures, the market is starting to worry again about central banks and their interest rate policy. Next Thursday it will be the ECB’s turn with an interest rate decision, the Fed in two weeks. Macro figures, such as the American ISM services index today, will be studied closely again.
The consensus is that both the ECB and Fed will keep their powder dry for a while at these meetings, but the question is when (and whether) Powell and Lagarde think the time is ripe for an interest rate cut. With reasonable to good economic data and a labor market that is still running at full speed, the pressure on the Fed and the ECB to make rapid cuts has decreased considerably.
Inflation expectations in America also show this.
The short-term inflation expectations that are priced into the market are rising. Here 1 year, 2 years and for comparison 10 years)
Will this have an influence on the Fed and expectations that it will soon lower interest rates? pic.twitter.com/SpklZe5uxb— Corné van Zeijl (@stock analyst) March 4, 2024
While the US has always been ahead of Europe for a while in recent years, the consensus now points to a simultaneous interest rate cut that will not take place until June. Of course, a lot can happen in the meantime; It is known from the ECB that the board wants to wait for important labor market dates in May, when the outcomes of the wage negotiations are known.
One company appeared this morning on the Damrak between the sliding doors with numbers: the small but fine tech fund TKH. The 1.7% increase in turnover to €1.85 billion was impressive and the EBITA at €237 million fell within the expected range – even slightly at the top end. TKH increases the dividend to €1.70 per share (from €1.65).
News
The headlines since yesterday’s close:
- 08:26 Slightly less turnover for Bayer
- 08:07 Slightly lower start AEX expected
- 07:55 TKH exceeds profit expectations
- 07:54 Beijing sets a growth target of 5 percent
- 07:37 Mithra puts herself in the shop window
- 07:25 Hong Kong sharply lower at the start of the People’s Congress
- 07:11 European stock markets are expected to open lower
- 07:02 Japanese economy is growing slightly faster than expected
- 07:00 Stable growth of the Chinese economy
- 06:56 Stock market agenda: macroeconomic
- 06:55 Stock market agenda: foreign funds
- 06:54 Exhibition agenda: Dutch companies
- March 04 Stock market update: AEX on Wall Street
- Mar 04 Wall Street closed slightly lower
- Mar 04 Oil price closed lower
- March 04 Correction: European stock markets closed mainly lower
- 04 Mar Wall Street heads for a lower close
- 04 Mar Sebastiaan Boelen appointed CFO Marel
Agenda
After the limited set of quarterly figures this morning, there are few items on the agenda that guarantee a spectacle. However, in the run-up to Thursday’s ECB meeting, the European data released today will probably be paid more than average attention. And in the afternoon, an better or worse ISM index can also provide some action.
- 00:30 Japan purchasing managers index services Feb (final)
- 00:30 China purchasing managers index services Feb (final)
- 07:00 Bayer Q4 figures
- 07:30 TKH Q4 figures
- 08:00 D’Ieteren Q4 figures
- 10:00 EU purchasing managers index services Feb (final)
- 11:00 EU producer prices Jan
- 1:00 PM Target Q4 numbers
- 15:45 US Purchasing managers index industry S&P Feb (final)
- 4:00 PM US Purchasing Managers Index Services ISM Feb (consensus: 53)
- 4:00 PM US Factory Orders Jan
- 22:00 NIO Q4 figures
Shortposities
The top 10 short positions in the AFM register (source: Shortsell.nl)
And then this
In Europe too, a handful of companies account for the majority of returns.
The market rise is becoming narrower and narrower, also in Europe. More than 2/3 of the increase also comes from the top 7 in Europe.
(Bofa). pic.twitter.com/G5zRcSS3M2— Corné van Zeijl (@stock analyst) March 4, 2024
In fact, in the country of the Magnificent Seven the large companies dominate the market a lot less than in other countries.
The US equity market is one of the least concentrated in the world
— FT Alphaville (@FTAlphaville) March 4, 2024
The ‘landing’ of the American economy:
Check out this *beautiful* chart of consensus US growth forecasts for 2024. Not even a soft landing, just a brief refuelling. https://t.co/fMXEIfrQXu pic.twitter.com/EM2tgeC8xe
— Robin Wigglesworth (@RobinWigg) March 4, 2024
“The best laptop for AI,” says Apple about its own Macbooks. But is Apple still in the AI race?
Apple announced new versions of its 13-inch and 15-inch MacBook Air laptops with its latest M3 chip.
The announcement shows it’s stepping up its marketing around AI: https://t.co/Z5peLwg3bb pic.twitter.com/I15V6fuJz7
— CNBC (@CNBC) March 4, 2024
Pieter Kort is editor-in-chief of IEX Media. The information in this column is not intended as professional investment advice or as a recommendation to make certain investments.
2024-03-05 07:33:46
#AEX #opens #China #ambitious #milestones #chip #shares #IEX.nl
