The day started in the negative for the AEX, but prices crept up during the day. Today’s big winner is yesterday’s big loser: NN Group (+3.09%). Shell (+1.20%) continues its advance, Philips does the same but in the other direction (-2.44%).
Rent violence
With interest rates skyrocketing, you would expect stocks to come under considerable pressure. Not only do bonds now offer increasingly attractive interest returns, but interest rates are starting to bite the economy, and therefore also companies. There is less and less of a risk premium for shares. In this way, investors are saddled with the risks but do not receive the premium for them. That cannot be the intention.
However, equity investors kept their cool today and are clearly not fooled by the interest rate frenzy. The era of free money is over. We are returning to normal interest rates. This also has its positive side: prudent monetary expenditure matters again. Throwing money around is passé.
Winners & losers Damrak
NN Group, which lost 18.8% yesterday after a devastating court ruling, fell further this morning but recovered strongly after comments from ING analyst Jason Kalamboussis that the extortionate policy damage will probably be less expensive than investors initially estimated. IEX analyst Niels Koerts agrees with this. ASR (+0.32%) and Aegon (+0.98%) are riding the relief rally of colleague NN.
Although the oil price had to retreat slightly today (Brent: -0.22%), Shell continued to rise. There was no increase today due to the Philips share falling below €19 again. The company is said to have hidden complaints from lung and apnea patients from the American regulator for years. For example, the investment company’s recent entry action, which was considered positive, is again overshadowed by the lingering apnea affair.
The price movements of ArcelorMittal (+2.27%) and Aperam (+3.20%) are also positive. ArcelorMittal yesterday hit its lowest price of the year. Aperam hasn’t brought investors much joy this year either.
IEX Premium advice
1. Damage to NN is probably not too bad
The advice for NN Group changes after analyst Niels Koerts took out his calculator again and estimated the damage caused by the extortionate policy affair at a maximum of €1.8 billion in the worst case. That corresponds to what NN Group earns in extra money in a year, according to him. The expected damage is considerably less than what the insurer lost on the stock exchange yesterday. You can read below whether our analysts consider the share worth buying.
NN Group’s damage amount may be lower than feared for IEX Premium via @IEXnl
— IEX Investors Desk (@Beleggersdesk) September 28, 2023
2. Micron is waiting for better times
The weak state of affairs in the chip market is being felt by memory chip manufacturer Micron. 2023 is a lost year. Should the chip market revive, Micron is well positioned to benefit from this, according to analyst Ivo Breukink. According to him, the valuation can be called solid, but you can read in the analysis below whether the long-term prospects are good enough for a buy recommendation.
No recovery yet with Micron IEX Premium via @IEXnl
— IEX Investors Desk (@Beleggersdesk) September 28, 2023
3. AI is not a hype but a game changer
Siegfried Kok of the OBAM fund: “The technology will have an impact on almost all industries and ultimately everyone will be affected by it. It will be a way to save costs through productivity improvements, but also to create new products and services that we cannot yet imagine .” Read the story.
AI: hype of game changer IEX Premium via @IEXnl
— IEX Investors Desk (@Beleggersdesk) September 28, 2023
4. The impact of higher bank taxes on ABN Amro is limited
Martin Crum changes the advice for the ‘former’ state bank ABN AMRO. As the analyst writes: “Thanks to the composition of its loan portfolio – mainly mortgages – ABN Amro is fairly resilient, but certainly not insensitive to the economic cycle. To date, large provisions for bad loans have not been made: we are certainly taking into account some more headwind in that area. coming period.”
Proposed higher bank tax negative for ABN Amro IEX Premium via @IEXnl
— IEX Investors Desk (@Beleggersdesk) September 28, 2023
5. Discount at Prosus remains high
Two major changes at Prosus (change in capital structure and departure of CEO), but the share price is barely moving. Given the fact that Prosus’ discount is still large, the analysis by Hildo Laman, head of the IEX Investor Desk, shows whether a Buy recommendation is sufficient.
Renewal at Prosus should reduce IEX Premium discount via @IEXnl
— IEX Investors Desk (@Beleggersdesk) September 28, 2023
Wall Street
The stock markets in New York are in positive territory after an hour of trading. The tech stock exchange Nasdaq (+0.77%) is doing better than the other two: S&P 500 (+0.67%) and Dow (+0.47%)
Interest fireworks
Heavy movements in the bond market today. The Dutch ten-year bond has never been this high before this year. We have to go back to 2011 to find the same interest rate. Where is it going?
Dutch ten-year: 3.32% (+4.52%) German ten-year: 2.99% (+4.87%) Italian ten-year: 4.93% (+3.09%) British ten-year: 4.59% ( +5.28%) US ten-year: 4.65% (+0.43%) Japanese ten-year: 0.76% (-0.07%)
Reference time: 4:55 p.m
The yield on the US 10-year government bond continues to go higher, now flirting with 4.70%, despite weaker data on economic activity.#economy #markets #EconTwitter pic.twitter.com/ZrurUhYwEf
— Mohamed A. El-Erian (@elerianm) September 28, 2023
Broad market
Apart from interest rates (enough about that), the strong rise of the euro (+0.62%) against the dollar is striking today. The new popularity of the euro can be explained by the fact that European interest rates rose more today than American interest rates. That attracts capital. The weaker dollar also drags down the price of gold, quoted in US dollars (-0.62%). Bitcoin gains 2.72% and rises to $26,977.
Banking advice
High price targets for SBM Offshore, ASR, NN Group and Akzo Nobel, among others.
Bron: Guruwatch.nl
Agenda 29 september 2023
There is no important company news tomorrow.
And further:
Old times threaten to revive at Ajax
People are talking to administrators from yesteryear. The Ajax fan share (price: €10.20) does not react at all. First, a goal must be scored on the field, with or without an empty F-square.
BREAKING: honorary chairman @MichaelvanPraag returns to #Ajax. Just like former supervisory board chairman Leo van Wijk.
— Mike Verweij (@MikeVerweij) September 28, 2023
American consumers keep their fingers crossed
This is of course bad news for an economy that is 70% dependent on consumer spending.
Big downward revision for consumption within 2Q23 GDP … final adjustment took growth rate from +1.7% (q/q ann.) to +0.8% (weakest since pandemic decline) pic.twitter.com/KSIjozdsPK
— Liz Ann Sonders (@LizAnnSonders) September 28, 2023
Oil price goes its own way
As long as OPEC+ keeps its ranks closed and the US cannot match the cartel’s production cuts, oil prices will not fall. Or the soft economic landing will have to become a hard one.
#Oil is extremely overbought. Previous episodes have consistently led to rather sharp #corrections.
h/t @themarketear pic.twitter.com/AG281wUdkT— Lance Roberts (@LanceRoberts) September 28, 2023
Value x growth: nothing new under the sun
Value Stocks are trading near the cheapest levels of the past 30 years pic.twitter.com/IAHOMSS8RV
— Barchart (@Barchart) September 27, 2023
Positive energy news from the bitcoin front
According to a Bloomberg report, Bitcoin mining has started to embrace renewable energy sources, with more than 50% of its energy consumption coming from green sources.#Bitcoin $BTC #BTC #bitcoinprice #crypto #cryptocurrency #blockchain #finance #money pic.twitter.com/A1GCjpBWlO
— Bitcoin (@Bitcoin) September 28, 2023
A housing shortage does not lead to a building frenzy
For example, 13 sectors in the economy are expected to perform in 2024: significant contraction in construction and agriculture, but growth in the IT sector and business services
— Business Insider Netherlands (@BINederland) September 28, 2023
Rob Stallinga is a financial journalist. The information in his articles is not intended as professional investment advice or as a recommendation to make certain investments.
2023-09-28 16:15:45
#fair #September #IEX.nl
