Kasikorn Securities Company Limited expects the Thai stock index this week, 15 – 19 January 2024, to have support levels at 1,400 and 1,390 points, while resistance levels are at 1,435 and 1,455 points, with the Thai stock index still in a down direction. Even though many markets in Asia are increasing And there are also many risk factors, both domestic and international, that must be kept an eye on.
The Thai stock index fell for most of last week. This can be seen from the fact that Thai stocks have gradually dropped since the beginning of the week following the selling pressure of foreign investors and domestic institutions. In particular, the news of the request to defer bond repayment of Italian-Thai Development Public Company Limited (ITD) put pressure on the overall investment atmosphere, resulting in the selling of stocks in many industries.
This week, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) warned holders of 5 series of ITD bonds to study the information carefully before exercising their rights at the bondholder meeting on January 17th. ITD bonds will Due this year, 6,800 million baht and another 8,700 million baht in 2025, for which the company will request a moratorium on debt payments for 2 years.
In addition, the news that major investment banks in the United States Downgrade of 3 Thai bank stocks is still a negative factor that puts additional pressure on bank stocks. By Friday, January 12, 2024, the SET Index closed at 1,413.53 points, down 1.01% from the level at the end of last week. Meanwhile, the average daily trading value was 41,215.73 million baht, down 11.99% from the previous week. The mai index increased 0.26% to close at 420.57 points.
For this week, there are factors that need to be followed, including signals from foreign capital and the BOT Policy Briefing of the Bank of Thailand (BoT), which may send some signals regarding interest rates. After last week Political parties have come out to give their opinions on the reduction of interest rates in Thailand. To help the economy recover In addition, you must follow the announcement of operating results of listed companies. Especially the results of the banking group in the 4th quarter of 2023.
Important US economic data includes retail sales, industrial production. Data on home construction starts and second-hand home sales in December. Including the number of people applying for weekly unemployment benefits. Meanwhile, other foreign economic data includes Japan’s December Consumer Price Index. Eurozone and England Including 4Q23 GDP numbers and December economic data from China such as industrial production, retail sales and investment in fixed assets.
Kobsak Phutrakul, Chairman of the Thai Capital Market Business Council Revealed that the results of the survey of the investor confidence index (FETCO Investor Confidence Index: ICI) in December 2023 (surveyed between 20-31 December 2023) found that the ICI index in the next 3 months was at the level of 137.00, increased to 38.9. % from the previous month is in the “hot” range.
Investors view that the inflow of capital It is the most confidence-boosting factor. Followed by the recovery of the tourism sector and government economic stimulus measures. While the factor that drags down investor confidence the most is the recession of the domestic economy. Followed by an increase in interest rates by the Federal Reserve (FED) and capital outflows.
For international factors that need to be monitored include the trend of easing monetary policy in major economies such as the United States and Europe due to inflation falling faster than expected. and China’s economic stimulus policy
In addition, geopolitical risks are also an issue that needs to be watched. Both the situation between Israel and Hamas The unresolved conflict in Russia-Ukraine and the results of the election in Taiwan on January 13, 2024, which will be an important decisive point in the possibility of war between Taiwan and China.
As for domestic factors that are worth following, they include public investment that is likely to expand lower than expected due to the delay in the 2024 Budget Act, the recovery of the export sector from the global trade trend. There is a higher expansion. and the recovery of the tourism sector after Chinese investors came in less than expected.
Recently, according to Taiwan’s unofficial election results, William Lai Ching-de of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) is set to become the next president. After an unofficial vote count showed he won nearly 5 million votes, he was far ahead of his rivals from two other parties. From the Kuomintang (KMT) and Taiwan People’s Party (TPP), the results of this election will cause increased tensions between China, Taiwan, and the United States. which must continue to monitor the situation
Advice on diversifying investment risks
words WongsuphasawatCFA Deputy Managing Director The Investment Management Division of Kasikorn Asset Management has summarized its outlook on investment and portfolio management in 2024 that the determining factor for economic and investment direction in 2024 is uncertainty from geopolitical risks. Policy implementation that may go wrong and weather fluctuations Therefore, allocate assets carefully and diversify risk. It will help investors create returns.
This is when the Fed stops raising interest rates. This will result in investors turning their attention to investing in asset classes. Long-Duration Like a bond Bonds with a long-term average maturity High dividend stocks and gold
for Asian stock markets We believe that a diversified approach across the region is essential to seizing the opportunities of the domestic economic recovery. In addition, with bond yields and deposit interest rates likely to decline in 2024, it is seen that investors will return to Asian stocks that pay high dividends again. by investment theme Focusing on artificial intelligence (AI), climate change, and ESG are also long-term investments in the world.
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2024-01-15 01:04:57
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