Stock Hunting Notes
There need to be some bright spots in the key areas of the market
Huang Zhihua (from Yeheshan)
The market formed resistance after testing lower this week. In the trading room of the securities department, Aunt Chen took advantage of the adjustment this week to get involved in the North Exchange’s products. In the second half of the week, many products on the North Exchange continued to rise, and she also speculated in a number of tourism, photovoltaic, artificial intelligence and other theme stocks.
Aunt Chen is optimistic about new technologies such as new energy and artificial intelligence in the long term. She said that it was reported that relevant parties said that reform, opening up and innovation continued to enhance endogenous power. Reform and opening up continues to deepen, digital industrialization and industrial digitization advance in depth, and future technologies such as artificial intelligence and quantum technology accelerate their application and transformation. These provide continued growth and development space, continuously expanded application scenarios, and sustainable development for various business entities to invest and start businesses. An optimized business environment will continue to stimulate the enthusiasm, initiative and creativity of business entities. At the same time, new space in the international market continues to expand. The increasing global demand for green and low-carbon products has led to the rapid growth of China’s exports of electric passenger vehicles, lithium-ion batteries and solar cells.
Yeheshanren said that after a period of adjustment in the Beijing Stock Exchange market, many varieties fell to the 60-day moving average, half-year line, annual line and other areas this week and stopped falling and rebounded, still showing high activity. In addition to the low price-to-earning ratios of many products and small market sizes, the active market of the North Exchange is also related to the small overall size and relatively strong linkage, small institutional holdings, and low selling pressure.
At this stage, the market reversal lacks momentum, but some bright spots are needed to maintain a certain degree of market sentiment.
The market is currently weak and the lack of liquidity in the market is an important factor. At the same time, many funds are facing redemption pressure, which has also added to the irrational selling pressure in the market. Since last year, the number of fund liquidations has hit a five-year high. According to reports, a number of large-scale public offerings have recently issued announcements that many new funds are facing liquidation “with prices below 50 million yuan for 50 consecutive trading days.” Some fund products issued liquidation warnings less than three months after the product was established. Some ETF funds suffered redemptions of 80% of their shares after only six trading days after being listed. After falling below the “red line” of liquidation, only one of the funds from the issuance period is left in the three months since its establishment. scale.
At present, the AH premium is still too large. Even for blue-chip AH premiums such as large banks are still 30%-60%. The premiums for other products are higher. Therefore, if some products want to be repurchased, the cost of repurchasing H shares is lower, which makes some investors H shares have limited driving force for A shares. Only when blue-chip H shares rise, will the corresponding A-share varieties gain a solid foundation.
Liang Bo participated in the operation of new energy vehicles and other varieties this week. He said that according to reports, with the continuous increase in the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in China and the continuous improvement of the level of vehicle intelligence, the emerging industry of intelligent new energy vehicles not only drives upstream parts companies, but also has an impact on the supporting infrastructure during vehicle use. Facilities present entirely new requirements. In this regard, industry chain companies, including a number of listed companies, have already participated. Industry experts believe that with the implementation of incentive policies, the application expansion of vehicle-road collaboration and vehicle-network integration is expected to open up incremental business space for domestic enterprises in 2024.
In addition to continuing to sell large bank stocks, Uncle Li also intervened in oversold small and medium-sized bank stocks this week. Uncle Li said that although the A-share market continues to correct, and according to reports, relevant parties said that the National Bureau of Statistics released the main indicator data of the national economic operation in 2023. In the context of the world entering a new period of turbulence and change, and the global economic growth momentum is insufficient, Under the current situation, China’s economic development has shown the characteristics of “stable”, “progressive” and “good”. The basic trend of China’s economic recovery and long-term improvement has not changed.
After sitting on the sidelines with a short position last week, Li Sheng took advantage of the adjustment of the market and the North Exchange’s products this week to buy back some oversold city commercial bank stocks and some of the North Exchange products he had bought before, and then pulled them up.
He said that at present, low-valuation, high-dividend varieties are varieties that are worthy of attention when choosing opportunities due to their prudent operation. Over the past 10 years, regulatory authorities have issued a series of policies to guide and encourage dividends, and the level of dividends paid by listed companies in my country has shown a steady increase. From the perspective of industry distribution, media statistics found that listed companies with high dividend yields are mainly distributed in the coal, banking, petroleum and petrochemical, electric power, textile and apparel, household appliances, high-speed and other industry sectors. As of January 16, the average dividend rates of the top three industries in the past three years were 6.98%, 5.49% and 5.03% respectively, ranking among the top three.
Regarding the trends of the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets, Yeheshanren said that from the perspective of stage trends, the Shanghai Stock Index has formed a trumpet-shaped downward channel since mid-November 2023, with its upper track being 3089 points on November 21, 2023, and 2976 points on January 2, 2024. Points connect the two high points, and the lower track is the connection of low points such as 3033 points on November 17, 2023, 2930 points on December 11, 2023, and 2882 points on December 21, 2023.
On Thursday, the Shanghai Stock Index dropped to 2760 points, which was just supported by the lower track of the downward channel and stopped falling. It closed at the first downward parallel line of the downward channel pointed out before, that is, 3223 points on February 17, 2023 and October 23, 2023. The connection between the two lows of 2923 points means that the downward channel since February 2023 has not been effectively broken.
According to previous analysis, the Shanghai Stock Index has operated in a large box in the past two years. Its first horizontal band is 2863 points on April 27, 2022, 2885 points on October 31 of the same year, and 2923 points on October 23, 2023. Important low points are connected; and of the 6 downward parallel lines formed since February 2023, the second one is 3168 points on May 25, 2023, 3053 points on August 25, and 2930 points on December 11, 2023. Connect points.
The above-mentioned first horizontal band and the second descending parallel line currently intersect in the area around 2890 points. The Shanghai Stock Index fell further this week after falling slightly below last week. Whether it can effectively recover, and the above-mentioned trumpet formation since mid-November last year Whether the upper track of the downward channel (currently intersecting with the 30-day moving average) can be effectively recovered is more critical. Only by recovering can the large-area pattern since April 2022 be maintained. Otherwise, the break of this large-area pattern may make the bottoming time longer. .
The Shenzhen Component Index has formed a downward channel since April 2023. Its upper track basically intersects with the 60-day moving average and moves downward. The lower track is 11034 points on April 25, 2023, 10648 points on June 8, 2023, and October 2023. It is connected to the stage lows such as 9373 points on the 23rd. This Thursday, the Shenzhen Component Index basically fell to the lower track to form resistance.
The GEM Index has also formed a downward channel since the end of January 2023. Its upper track basically intersects with the 120-day moving average and goes downwards. The lower track is 2289 points on March 17, 2023, 2118 points on June 8, 2023, and 2118 points on October 26, 2023. It is connected to the daily lows of 1840 points and other lows. It fell to this lower track this Thursday to form resistance. It is also a long-term upward trend line connecting two important bottoms of 585 points on December 4, 2012 and 1184 points on October 19, 2018. Whether you can stick to the area you are in is more critical.
Several major stock indexes hit key levels this week. The market stopped falling on Thursday, but fell back on Friday, indicating that the market has resisted, but the continued driving force is insufficient, and the pressure from above still needs to be digested slowly and repeatedly. (815)
(This article is not intended as investment advice. Huang Zhihua published this article in “Investment Express” and the characters are fictitious)
2024-01-21 14:39:19
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