Stock index futures[Weekly outlook]―Aware of the turning point of 34,000 yen, take a long strategy to aim for a push during the correction phase | Market conditions – Stock search news

This week’s Nikkei 225 futures are at a turning point of 34,000 yen, and sentiment seems to be strengthening due to year-end appreciation. The US market closed on the 24th, the day after Thanksgiving, and while the New York Dow and S&P 500 rose, the Nasdaq fell, weighed down by a rise in US long-term interest rates. Aggressive buying and selling has been refrained from, but depending on the sales trends of Black Friday and Cyber ​​Monday, there will likely be more awareness of the possibility of a year-end high.

In the November Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), which combines the U.S. manufacturing and service industries, announced on the 24th, the employment index decreased by 1.6 points to 49.7, marking the first time in three and a half years that activity is on the verge of expansion and contraction. Divided by 50. The view that the US interest rate hike phase is over continued to support the market.

Last week’s Nikkei 225 futures were bought as high as 33,870 yen on the 20th, breaking the highest price set on June 19th after the bubble burst. After that, the price adjusted to 33,110 yen, and on the 24th, after the holiday, it was bought to 33,820 yen. The price continues to move within the range of +1σ and +2σ of the Bollinger Bands, which are moving upward, but after adjusting to +1σ, it has become an ideal rebound.

+1σ is located at around 33,310 yen, and +2σ has risen to around 34,360 yen, so even if it hits the turning point of 34,000 yen, it would be hard to be wary of overheating. Although there is a possibility that there will be a sense of accomplishment for a while, when adjustments are made, we would like to assume a long response aiming for a push. First of all, we assume a range of 33,625 yen to 33,875 yen centered on the option exercise price of 33,750 yen, which is the closing price level of the night session, but we are conscious of the firmness around 33,750 yen. In such a situation, I would like to be aware of rounding up the range from 33,750 yen to 34,000 yen.

In addition, in the US market last week, Microsoftand NvidiaThe index hit a new high since its listing, and this value, which had a large index impact, provided support for high-tech stocks and pushed up the Nikkei Stock Average. After that, Nvidia showed signs of taking profits as its cautious outlook for the future turned sour. Nvidia has reportedly told Chinese customers that it will postpone the release of a new chip for artificial intelligence (AI) in China, citing sources familiar with the matter. This is one of the semiconductors being developed for China in order to comply with US export regulations, so it seems necessary to keep an eye on stock price trends.

Last weekend, the VIX index fell to 12.46, below the 12.68 reached on September 15th and the lowest level since the beginning of the year. It has fallen to the lowest level since January 2020, and there is a possibility that short covering will be strengthened. Therefore, even if the US year-end sales season falls short of expectations, it is important to avoid shorting the stock amid a self-sustaining rebound.

In addition, the NT multiple was 14.16x for futures contracts.At one point, it rose as high as 14.11 times, but some semiconductor stocks weakened, and the yen depreciated to the mid-149 yen level to the dollar over the weekend, leading to Toyota Motor Corporation <7203> [東証Ｐ]This is due to the TOPIX type having a slight advantage, as export-related items such as these are being bought. However, as the stock continued to move across the 200-day moving average line, there was evidence of firmness at that line. It all depends on Nvidia’s trends, but given the sentiment of year-end high prices, I would like to see the stance of aiming for the spread with NT long in the correction situation.

According to the buying and selling trends by investment sector for the third week of November (November 13th to 17th), overseas investors were net buyers of spot and futures for three consecutive weeks, with a net purchase amount of 1,029.6 billion yen ( In the first week of November, there was net buying of 126.6 billion yen), which was the second consecutive week of net buying of more than 1 trillion yen. In addition, spot stocks are net buyers of 362.9 billion yen (net purchases of 78.3 billion yen) for the fourth consecutive week, and futures are net purchases of 666.7 billion yen (net purchases of 1,048.2 billion yen) for the third consecutive week. There is. Individuals were net sellers for a total of 591.1 billion yen in spot and futures, the third consecutive week of net selling. Trust banks were net sellers for the second consecutive week, totaling 134.6 billion yen in cash and futures.

On the economic schedule, on the 27th, October corporate service price index, January-October Chinese industrial enterprise profits, US October new home sales, Cyber ​​Monday, US September S&P Case-Shiller housing prices, US November on the 28th. Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, July-September quarter GDP final figures for the United States, U.S. Federal Reserve Economic Report (Beige Book) on the 29th, October Commercial Statistics, October industrial production, United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change on the 30th. 28th Conference of the Parties COP28 (until December 12), China November Manufacturing PMI, China November Services PMI, US October Personal Income, US October Personal Expenditures (PCE), US November Chicago Purchasing Department Association economic index, OPEC+ meeting, October 1st unemployment rate/effective job openings ratio, July-September corporate enterprise statistics survey, China November Caixin manufacturing industry PMI, US November ISM manufacturing industry economic index , US construction spending is scheduled for October.

–Playback Market–

●SQ value
December contract Nikkei 225 27576.37 TOPIX 1945.27
January contract Nikkei 225 26325.21 TOPIX 1900.71
February contract Nikkei 225 27779.75 TOPIX 1986.19
March contract Nikkei 225 28377.34 TOPIX 2047.32
April contract Nikkei 225 28519.43 TOPIX 2019.76
May contract Nikkei 225 29235.08 TOPIX 2090.33
June contract Nikkei 225 32018.38 TOPIX 2211.13
July contract Nikkei 225 32484.24 TOPIX 2245.68
August contract Nikkei 225 32013.86 TOPIX 2278.68
September contract Nikkei 225 32921.39 TOPIX 2370.93
October contract Nikkei 225 32360.91 TOPIX 2326.75
November contract Nikkei 225 32454.88 TOPIX 2318.99

◆Nikkei 225 futures (daily)
Opening price High price Low price Settlement price Change from previous day 23/12 November 24th
23/12 November 24th 33460 33820 33440 33600 +160
23/12 November 22 33320 33600 33110 33440 +90
23/12 November 21st 33350 33470 33190 33350 +30
23/12 November 20th 33590 33870 33320 33320 -280

◇TOPIX futures (daily)
Opening price High price Low price Settlement price Change from previous day
23/12 November 24th 2376.5 2399.0 2376.0 2388.5 +12.5
23/12 November 22 2363.5 2387.5 2355.5 2376.0 +10.5
23/12 November 21st 2370.0 2374.0 2355.0 2365.5 -3.5
23/12 November 20th 2395.5 2405.5 2368.0 2369.0 -26.5

●Chicago Nikkei Average Yen-denominated
Settlement price Osaka comparison from the previous day
November 24th (December contract) 33740 +140
November 22nd (December contract) 33770 +330
November 21st (December contract) 33200 -150
November 20th (December contract) 33380 +60
*The change from the previous day is compared to the closing price of the Osaka Exchange.

□Cash position arbitrage balance (amount) related to arbitrage trading
Sell ​​Compared to the previous weekend Buy Compared to the previous weekend
November 17th 24.7 billion yen +18.7 billion yen 814.1 billion yen +146.6 billion yen
November 10th 6.0 billion yen -34.9 billion yen 667.4 billion yen +152.6 billion yen
November 2nd 40.9 billion yen +5.3 billion yen 514.8 billion yen +116.3 billion yen
October 27th 35.6 billion yen +200 million yen 398.4 billion yen -183.6 billion yen

□Cash position (number of shares) related to arbitrage trading
Selling Change from previous day Buying Change from previous day
On November 21, 10.88 million plants – 1.16 million plants, 318.41 million plants + 23.43 million plants
On November 20, 12.05 million plants + 2.33 million plants, 294.98 million plants – 28.24 million plants
November 17: 9.71 million plants + 8.04 million plants 323.22 million plants + 26.64 million plants
On November 16, 1.67 million plants – 1.16 million plants, 296.58 million plants + 1.13 million plants
November 15: 2.84 million plants + 230,000 plants 295.45 million plants + 20.34 million plants
November 14: 2.6 million plants: 0 plants: 275.1 million plants – 1.49 million plants
November 13: 2.6 million plants + 1.16 million plants 276.6 million plants – 2.67 million plants
November 10: 1.43 million plants, 0 plants, 279.27 million plants – 3.96 million plants
November 9: 1.43 million plants – 1.38 million plants 283.23 million plants + 13.19 million plants
On November 8, 2.82 million plants – 4.76 million plants, 270.04 million plants – 4.19 million plants
On November 7, 7.59 million plants – 2.56 million plants, 274.23 million plants + 200,000 plants
November 6: 10.15 million plants – 570,000 plants 274.03 million plants + 43.95 million plants

■ Trends in index-linked exchange traded fund (ETF) purchases by the Bank of Japan (regular ETF portion)
【2022】
January 14th 70.1 billion yen
January 25th 70.1 billion yen
February 14th 70.1 billion yen
March 7th 70.1 billion yen
April 7th 70.1 billion yen
May 19th 70.1 billion yen
June 13th 70.1 billion yen
June 17th 70.1 billion yen
December 2nd 70.1 billion yen
【2023】
March 13th 70.1 billion yen
March 14th 70.1 billion yen
October 4th 70.1 billion yen

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