MILANO – Nerve bags after you give them US data arrived much lower than expected on the labor market, with the creation of 210,000 jobs in November, which lacks the expectations of analysts, who were aiming for 550,000 new positions. The public, automotive and retail sectors are down.
Slow down the pace of hiring of US companies
In this way, some clouds gather about the recovery of the most important economy in the world, a consideration that takes on even more consistency in the light of the evolution of recent days on the health front. It therefore seems that we can re-propose the film already seen during the summer, when it was the Delta variant that slowed down the restart of the occupation. “If Omicron had the same effects – he noted, al Wsj, Justin Weidner, economist at Deutsche Bank – would slow down the recovery of the labor market. “For the moment, among the signs of a continuing normalization is the fact that the share of people looking for work is growing. Also because wages ( + 4.8%) are beginning to respond to increases due to galloping inflation, although in this case too the growth in payroll has been lower than expected (+ 5%).
Unemployment falls, but is calculated on a different statistical basis, at 4.2%. This decline – explains hotly Antonio Cesarano, Intermonte’s global chief strategist – is due precisely “to the increase in the number of potential workers who actively showed up to look for work. This is probably due to the lack of subsidies and fewer fears about the pandemic after the slowdown in infections, including October and November “. For Cesarano, “putting together the information of the two reports, an overall context emerges in which companies have begun to slow down hiring when potential workers finally showed up more abundantly to actively seek work. Or, in others terms, the job offer is catching up when the demand for work by companies has appeared more cautious “. If you look at the comparison with the pre-Covid, 3.9 million seats are still missing. In particular, says Cesarano, “above all recruitments in the leisure and hospitality sector (+23,000) are lacking, for which 1.3 million jobs are still missing to return to the pre-pandemic phase”.
The markets and the moves of the central banks
The picture of light and shadow that emerged from the American job data is making the financial markets nervous. At first, the creation of far below expectations appears to be preventing the Federal Reserve from move towards more “hawkish” tones and therefore towards an acceleration of the closing of the taps with which it flooded the markets with liquidity. But, remember Bloomberg, the only drop in the number on unemployment allows the governor Jerome Powell to keep pushing for a tapering accelerated: the disappointment of the created places is not a game changer on the way of holding on to stimuli. “The very disappointing figure on job creation in November was offset by the sharp drop in the unemployment rate and the rise in the labor force participation rate – commented Filippo Diodovich, senior market strategist at Ig Italia – We believe that Today’s macro figures have no impact on the Fed’s next choices. We believe that, to combat inflationary pressures, the US central bank will work to lower inflation expectations, radically changing the approach to monetary policy. next FOMC meeting the reduction in purchases of government bonds may be greater than market expectations “.
After an initial strengthening, the markets have therefore raised concerns about the resilience of the recovery and the fact that the Fed will proceed with the tightening. At the end of the session Milano marked a decrease of 0.26%, Frankfurt 0.71%, London 0.14% e Paris 0.44%. After the good start of Wall Street, even the American indices are weakening: the technological sector suffers in particular and – at the close of the EU stock exchanges – the Nasdaq drops 2.2%, while the Dow Jones files 0.4% and the S & P500 0.96%. In Piazza Affari Recordati stands out afterwards the maxi acquisition in the UK.
On the European side, the president of the ECB, Christine Lagarde, reiterated that the European Central Bank is “ready to act” but “a rate hike in 2022 is very unlikely”. Among the macro data, reassuring indications come from the services sector. The SME index recorded by Markit in our country rose to 55.9 points in November, from 52.4 in the previous month compared to the 54.5 expected by analysts. The composite figure rose to 57.6 points from 54.2 in October, well beyond the expectations of analysts who had forecast it to rise to 55.9 points. Car production in Germany, on the other hand, is bad: the market collapsed by 31.7% again in November and 2021 is expected to close ten percentage points below 2020.
Asian markets moved positively this morning. There Tokyo Stock Exchange it stretched on the end of trading and climbed 1% with the Nikkei at 28,029.57, adding 276 points. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng ended the week on parity, shedding 0.093%. On the other hand, the Shanghai Composite was positive, gaining 0.94% to 3,607 points, and the Shenzhen Component, growing by 0.86% to 14,892 points. The list of the island is affected by the choices of Didi, Uber’s Chinese rival, which after a few months prepares its delisting from Wall Street and is going to go public in Hong Kong. In a statement, the company said the board of directors authorized the initiation of delisting procedures from the New York Stock Exchange. The decision follows Beijing’s pressure on the giant, contrary to its listing on Wall Street from the beginning.
On the currency front, the price issue continues to alarm even Turkey, which is struggling with one in recent days heavy devaluation of the currency: in November the country recorded inflation of 21.3% on an annual basis, at the highest levels for three years. There Central Bank of Turkey said it had returned to liquidity in the currency market for the second time in 48 hours “due to harmful price formation in exchange rates”, as stated in a statement. In one week, the net international foreign exchange reserves of the Turkish central bank fell by $ 510 million, from $ 25 billion to $ 24 billion and $ 670 million.
It closes at 129 basis points spread between BTP and German Bund, with the yield of the Italian ten-year at 0.93% on the secondary market.
Among the raw materials, the Petroleum moves up the day after the OPEC + meeting during which an increase in production of 400 thousand barrels per day was confirmed for January as well. The February delivery contract on Brent rose by 2.57% to 71.46 dollars a barrel and the January delivery contract on the WTI by 2.38% at 68.08 dollars a barrel.
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