MILANO – 2.00 pm Signs of stabilization on the markets, with bonds moving in recovery – with consequent decline in yields – positive futures on the United States and the dollar retreating from the peaks recently reached. The yield on Treasuries, which in recent sessions had seen 1.6% (against forecasts of 1.5% at the end of the year, just a few weeks ago), now stands at around 1.4%. Has been the return of inflation, a perspective fueled above all in the US by the vaccination campaign flanked by Biden plan of 1.9 trillion of support – approved in the House and expected in the Senate – to push sovereign yields causing a decline in shares. Almost unanimously all the central banks intervened to reassure people.
Europe is moving in positive ground while losing some momentum after the start. Milano advances by 1.1% with Piaggio highlighted on the news of an international alliance for the production of interchangeable batteries for motorcycles and light commercial vehicles. The positive signs are also rampant in the other squares of the Old Continent: London salt of 1.2%, Frankfurt grows by 0.8% e Paris 1.2%. In slight decline spread between BTPs and German Bunds: the differential fluctuates back to the 100 point threshold, with the yield on the ten-year bond around 0.7%.
The Tokyo Stock Exchange this morning it recovered the slide (-4%) of Friday: today the main index of Japan ended the session at + 2.41% at 29,663.50 points. The Chinese stock exchanges also closed positively with Shanghai (+ 1.2%) doubled by Shenzhen (+ 2.4%); good too Hong Kong (+1,63%).
Raw materials are among the protagonists of this phase of the markets. The wait for the OPEC + summit, scheduled for March 4, which should decide an increase in production together with the recovery of the world economy, captures the attention of the oil market. The price of the Petroleum Wti of Texas after the declines of the last few days, it rises above 62 dollars a barrel with an increase of 1.6% to 62.6 dollars with the market betting on a moderate increase in production. Brent from the North Sea rose 1.9% to $ 65.6.
L’euro opens lower below $ 1.21 after the top of 1.2242 reached last week, while the greenback held close to a six-month high on the yen of 106.60. The single currency is trading at $ 1.2088 and yen 128.83. “Riskier” and commodity-exposed currencies rebounded slightly after taking the worst at the end of last week, with Australian and Canadian dollars rising and emerging market currencies from Brazil to Turkey appearing more stable. . On the cryptocurrency front, the Bitcoin it is stable at $ 45,736.90 after last week’s slide following the top at $ 58,354.14 reached on February 21st.
An expected date in the day was inflation measured by Istat for Italy: in February prices rose by 0.6% annually, at the top since June 2019: variation in line with what the economists of Intesa Sanpaolo expected in their morning note, in which they highlighted the rise of fuels.
Indicators are also important SMEs on the manufacturing sector. From this point of view there are reassuring indications: in Italy the indicator is positioned in February at 56.9 points, the top since January 2018 and well above the threshold of 50 points that separates the contraction from the economic expansion. Jump to 60.7 points for the Germany, three years maximum, thanks to the strong demand from abroad. Data that also allows the Eurozone manufacturing SMEs to reach 57.9 points in February, fastest growth in three years.
On the other hand, in China manufacturing activity recorded the slowest growth rate of the last nine months in February, penalized by the consequences of Covid-19 which weighed on demand and supply chains. The index calculated by Ihs Markit for Caixin stood at 50.9 in February against 51.5 in January, below analysts’ expectations. The PMI in Japan improved, revised to 51.4 in February from 50.6 in the flash estimate.
L’orofinally, it moves upwards: the metal with immediate delivery increases by 1.25% to 1755 dollars an ounce.
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