(Il Sole 24 Ore Radiocor) – Prudence remains the watchword for European stock markets. Investors await concrete developments in the negotiations between Russia and Ukraine to reach an agreement at least on the ceasefire, while the slowdown in Chinese manufacturing activity and the prospect of a use of strategic reserves by the United States put a brake on the growth of energy prices. At Piazza Affari the FTSE MIB thus moves around parity. In any case, the European lists are preparing to close March, recovering the levels of the end of February and with a rebound of more than 14% compared to the lows of 7 March. Among the main Milanese stocks, banks and in particular weak Banco Bpmgain ground instead Saipem.
FTSE Mib stock market trend
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On the macroeconomic front, manufacturing activity in China contracted for the first time in five months in March, penalized by an epidemic rebound that is leading to confinements and weighing on activity. The index stood at 49.5 points against 50.2 in February, when the deterioration in health conditions was already putting pressure on the economy, as announced by the National Statistics Office. The value is thus placed below the threshold of 50 points which ideally separates an expanding economy from one in contraction. However, the figure is higher than analysts’ expectations, who expected a more pronounced decline (49.1). In Germany, meanwhile, retail sales rose 0.3% month-on-month in February, while on a trend level the increase was 7%.
Spread BTp-Bund slightly moved at 146 points
On the bond market, the trend was little moved for the spread between BTp and Bund after yesterday characterized by a sharp rise in yields on the secondary market MTS. The yield spread between the benchmark ten-year BTp and the corresponding German maturity stands at 146 basis points, one less than the close on Wednesday. The Yield of the Italian ten-year period remains well above the 2% threshold, at 2.13%, but slightly down compared to the 2.15% of the last reference.
BTP / Bund spread trend
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US reserves and Russia “balances” weigh on oil prices
As mentioned, the price of oil is decreasing, bringing it back towards 100 dollars a barrel. According to press reports, Washington is preparing to withdraw about one million barrels of oil a day from strategic reserves to curb expensive energy. Furthermore, Russia would be offering its crude oil for direct sale to India with substantial discounts compared to pre-war prices to find an outlet for its production banned by many Western countries. The May WTI future dropped 5.03% to 102.4 dollars a barrel, while the similar delivery on Brent slipped 3.62% to 109.34 dollars.
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