ASML probably achieved its own outlook in the third quarter, as the supplier to the semiconductor industry usually does. This emerged from a survey among analysts by ABM Financial News.
For the third quarter, ASML expects a turnover of 6.3 to 7.3 billion euros with a gross margin between 50 and 51 percent.
For the half-year figures, ASML maintained its outlook for the full year, with 2024 seen as a transition year with continued investments in both capacity expansion and technology.
For this year, ASML expects a turnover equal to that in 2023, when this was 27.6 billion euros.
By 2025, ASML wants to generate a turnover of 30 to 40 billion euros with a gross margin of 54 to 56 percent. And by 2030 this should increase to 44 to 60 billion euros with a margin of 56 to 60 percent.
Analysts at Degroof Petercam consider these objectives to be feasible and are therefore mainly looking at the order inflow when ASML reports its third quarter figures on Wednesday before the market opens. “Because that will have to determine whether ASML’s turnover in 2025 will be at the midpoint or towards the top,” analyst Michael Roeg of Degroof told ABM Financial News.
UBS expects approximately 6 billion euros in new orders in the third quarter, mainly thanks to orders by TSMC and Samsung. This means that the Swiss bank is slightly above the 5.6 billion euros that the market is counting on.
In the second quarter, ASML placed 5.6 billion euros in new orders on its books. Of this, 2.5 billion euros came from EUV.
At Kepler Cheuvreux, the analysts pay attention to “the outlook for 2024, the adoption of 2 nanometers by customers, investments in HBM and geopolitical risks [..] although the third quarter will probably not provide many new insights.” According to Kepler, we will have to wait for the investor day in November for that.
Fearing stricter rules, it appears that Chinese customers have placed additional orders recently. But this ‘ordering in advance’ creates a more difficult basis for comparison and most likely lower investments in the near future.
ASML shares rose 0.2 percent on Tuesday to 794.20 euros.
