We are currently under the influence of an anticyclone stretching from North Africa to France. This anticyclone conveys a south-westerly flow with values of 10 to 12°C at 850 hPa (this is an altitude close to approximately 1500 m in a “free” atmosphere = in the open air). It is this gentle advection that favored the first heat on our regions, with maximums that exceeded 25°C in the plain, sometimes more than 28°C in the Gard and the Hérault!
We will have to take advantage of it over the next 48 hours, because the weather conditions will change significantly next week. On the one hand, the anticyclone will retract very clearly towards Africa, but on the other hand we will see the resumption of low pressure conditions over the Atlantic and part of Europe. Below, here is the evolution of the synoptic context between this Saturday and next Wednesday.
While waiting for the return of the “bad weather”, tomorrow Sunday we will have perfectly sunny weather in our region. Unlike the days that have just passed, the mistral and the tramontana will cease. The sea breezes will take over, with gusts of 30 to 40 km/h at midday and afternoon. In this context, the maximum temperatures will be more heterogeneous than the previous days with at best 17 to 18°C on the beaches (yes, we will be freezing in swimsuits) but up to 23/24°C in the interior lands.
On Monday, the sun continues to shine, although associated with veils of high clouds which will thicken in the evening. Return of the tramontane between the Pyrénées-Orientales, the Aude and a good western part of the Hérault. Weaker wind, with sea breezes over eastern Hérault and Gard. The temperatures remain very pleasant, often with 23/25°C in the plain during the day.
On Tuesday, the forecast is starting to get uncertain for Tuesday. An area of low pressure will form between the United Kingdom and the Bay of Biscay, however weak. From then on, the flow will switch to the southern sector over our region, with an accentuation of the sea wind. The clouds are multiplying, with risks of rain which are to be confirmed between Tuesday and Wednesday. Some models see the rains staying at sea, while others see the rains overflowing inland.
For the moment, we are counting on possible rains both on our plains and on our reliefs, with a general drop in temperatures, but accumulations remaining overall very limited. Below is the CEP pattern accumulation through Wednesday night:
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