“Despite our best efforts, we still face a high risk of an epidemic rebound.” The Director General of Health, Jérôme Salomon, did not hide his fears this Monday evening in the face of a second wave still very virulent.
With an average of 10,000 cases per day, France is “still a long way from the goal of going below the threshold of 5,000” contaminations per day set by the government, which will be “very difficult” to achieve, he said. he warned. “In recent days, the level of daily contamination has not dropped and remains particularly high in people over 75 years”, alerted the Director of Health.
Stagnant numbers
Over the past week, the number of positive daily tests (virological PCR tests and rapid antigenic tests) has fluctuated between some 4,000 and 14,000, the average being 10,500 per day. On Sunday, the positivity rate was 10.7%, unchanged for several days, after several weeks of decline. The rate was around 20% a month ago. A situation which is explained in particular by a less strict confinement than in the spring (schools still open, visits to authorized nursing homes, etc.).
On the hospital side, the tension is still very strong. Some 26,365 patients are still hospitalized, according to figures for Monday, including 3,198 in intensive care.
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Deconfinement or not on December 15?
The question is therefore on everyone’s lips: will we be deconfined on December 15 if the objectives are not reached?
By clear answer this Monday evening. The Director General of Health kicked in, explaining that the measures would be adapted according to the evolution of the epidemic “in real time”. But the current situation worries the executive. The deconfinement announced for mid-December could thus undergo some modifications, such as the postponement of the resumption of activity in certain places (cinemas, theaters, etc.). Government speeches are expected in the coming days.
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The fear of the end of the year holidays
What the executive fears above all is the “Thanksgiving” effect: a surge in cases after the end of the year holidays, a phenomenon already observed in North America because of the increase in intra-family contaminations. “The virus will continue to circulate in the coming months. The winter season will be complicated, especially after the end of year celebrations,” warned Jérôme Salomon, who however emphasizes that the persistence of the epidemic is not due to a change in the behavior of the French. The government has already made several recommendations, which could evolve in the coming days, said the Director General of Health.
Among the other recommendations made to the French, we find that of the president of the Ile-de-France region. She recommended this Monday morning to Ile-de-France residents to be massively tested after the holidays. “We must avoid the Thanksgiving effect. In the United States, all Americans have gone to their families and they have triggered a wave of contaminations,” she said on France Inter.
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Epidemiologists rather call on the French to be tested before going to celebrate Christmas.
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