Source: China Securities Construction Investment Author: China Securities Construction Investment Futures
Research report text
【Points of view and strategies】
market news
Coca Cola: Landing place for the first round of coke transfer on New Year’s Day (100-110 yuan/ton);coking coal: Ceke Port expects to import 20 million tons next year and Ganqimaodu Port is expected to import 30 million tons.
inventory change
Coca Cola: Coke inventory decreased, steel mill inventory increased, and port inventory increased; overall inventory increased and coke inventory decreased. Available days of coke inventories at steel mills rebounded;coking coal: Coal washer and coal mine inventories continued to decline, coking plant restocks slowed, steel mills continued to restock, and port inventories continued to increase; overall inventories continued to increase, and coking coal inventories decreased downwards; the number of days available for coking coal inventories in coke ovens and steel mills rebounded.
Fundamental
Coca Cola: the loss of blast furnaces in steel mills has increased and the production of molten iron has increased slightly; coke inventories of some steel mills have increased to a reasonable level and willingness to buy has weakened; coke company profits fell slightly, the capacity utilization rate rebounded, and the coking steel production ratio declined;coking coal: The impact of the epidemic gradually eased, and the production pace of some large mines slowed down before the Spring Festival; available days of inventory at coke firms has rebounded and resistance to high-priced coal is evident; Traffic from Mongolia’s coal ports has risen to more than 870 vehicles on a daily basis, and destocking in control areas has been slow.
expected
Coca Cola: Question: 1) There are frequent macroeconomic benefits, the impact of the first wave of epidemics has weakened, and terminal repairs should be neutral; 2) Losses from threaded blast furnaces have intensified and steel mills can use molten iron to force raw material prices down, and thus replenish warehouses at low prices;coking coal: Supply: 1) 4.3m coking plant in Shanxi may be closed in batches at the end of the year; 2) With the Spring Festival approaching, some coal mines have already arranged holiday plans; 3) The increase in Mongolian coal imports are expected to increase further; 4) Concerns about the redistribution of Australian coal are gradually increasing.
main logic
Coca Cola: Coking Steel Gross Profit Margin Rebounded to 8%, Driven Down by Profit; coking coal inventory was reduced and coke inventory was reduced; after the first round of landing, the spot warehouse receipt was 2985, and the J01 contract was slightly discounted, and the basis was pushed up. Macro expectations are the main nuisance;coking coal: Short-term supply of steel mills is coming to an end, threaded blast furnaces are losing money, Mongolian coal customs clearance is high, and Australian coal ban has been lifted; the margins of long commercial terminals are improving, and the impact of the epidemic is weakening, etc. . It is worth noting that the current gross profit margin of coking steel reached a new high during the year.
Strategy
Coca Cola: Neutral: Coke 05 contract is temporarily on the sidelines, J05 pressure level is around 2760, and the support level is around 2620. After breaking the support, the downside momentum may increase;coking coal: Neutral: The 05 coking coal contract is on the sidelines for now. The pressure level is around 1940 and the support level is around 1820. After breaking the support, the downside momentum might pick up.
【1. About Bifocal Market】
【2. Bifocal Correlation Graph】
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