After the 32nd matchday of the 2020/21 season of the Austrian Bundesliga, we want to look at some interesting statistics in this series. We start with the best goalscorers and also look at the expected goal values. Which players ran above expectations according to the xG model, which kickers missed too many chances according to this model? All graphics and statistics are from Wyscout S.p.a and can be enlarged with a click of the mouse.
First some general information. Some of the statistics can be a bit falsified, as our data provider Wyscout also automatically adds the playoff games to the regular season. We will therefore preferably use the statistics per 90 minutes rather than the absolute values wherever possible and sensible. Furthermore, as a reader you should consider that the division into the champions and qualification groups can also have an influence on the values, as the teams from the lower playoffs meet weaker opponents and thus the statistics can turn out a little better. At the time of writing this article (Wednesday, May 26th, 2021), the two playoff games between Wiener Austria and WAC are still pending, so that Joveljic’s values can primarily increase if you want to include them in the regular season.
The expected goals of the 2020/21 season
Patson Daka and Ercan Kara are very close to each other on the expected goals. The difference this season, however, was that the Salzburg striker performed well above expectations and the Rapid attacker missed numerous chances according to the xG model. In principle, however, it is always a sign of quality when a striker works out numerous opportunities and, seen over several seasons, the xG values align quite well with the actual hits. Even superstars like Cristiano Ronaldo rarely perform above their xG values over several seasons. Kara’s colleague Fountas can serve as an example, who only had an xG value of 9.07 in his 19 hits last season. We wrote last year that, with all due respect for the Greek’s performance, such a chances evaluation will not be repeated. This year, Fountas is also slightly above expectations with an xG value of 7.78 and nine hits, but on a much smaller scale.
In this regard, the Danish legionnaire Nikolai Baden Frederiksen is the “Fountas of the 2020/21 season”. The versatile striker had an xG value of 10.53 and still scored the second most goals in the league with 18 goals. A more than remarkable achievement, especially since WSG Tirol played in the top playoff and was rarely the favorite there in the last ten rounds. Should Baden Frederiksen be loaned to a top club from Juventus again – Rapid at least expressed interest – it will be interesting to see how he will perform. One can assume that the xG value will go up, but as with Fountas it would be a big surprise if it were once again so significantly above its xG value.
Otherwise it should be noted that Sekou Koita is the only player in the top 20 who needed less than 1000 minutes of play to achieve his values. The Salzburg man is even in 6th place, although due to a doping ban with 915 minutes of play, he did not even have half as much playing time as most of his colleagues in our rating. Should Koita play more games in the coming season he will be at the front, which is certainly not a big surprise.
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