The Italian debt, which today travels just below 160% of GDP, is less frightening than when it was anchored just above 130%. The tranquility with which international observers look at our securities, certified by the decision of Standard & Poor’s to raise the outlook from stable to positive, confirming the triple B, has more than one explanation.
THE RATING OF ITALY
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Growth, first of all, which for once has denied the forecasts due to excess of the rise, is obviously the first engine to get out of the extra-debt problems, as Prime Minister Mario Draghi explained several times, recalling a heated debate among the economists.
The reasons for the positive judgment
The upward revision of Italy’s outlook by S&P is in fact linked to the Draghi government’s commitment to carry out pro-growth reforms: “We expect a strong recovery driven by investments in 2021 and 2022, with GDP of Italy above the levels of 2019 with a year ahead of forecasts ». The rating agency, in a note, underlines that the “clear strengthening of the commitment to pro-growth reforms, and the positive consequences that growth will have on public accounts”, has led to the revision of the outlook. S&P estimates for Italy GDP growth of 6% this year and 4.4% in 2022
And then there is precisely Mario Draghi, who offers the country a guarantee of credibility that has been rarefied for a long time. But whoever keeps public debt under observation must have a long look as a profession. Who is not satisfied with an economic rebound, however exceptional in numbers, nor with an authoritative premier, however exceptional in the curriculum.
The decision of Standard & Poor’s, then, is useful to sound another alarm for those who do not see the intersection of opportunities that occupy the Italian scene. Because inflation is knocking on the door, albeit in a “temporary” way as Bank of Italy swears, and Frankfurt’s ultra-expansionary monetary policy will have to take a path of gradual easing.
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