Source: Donghai Futures Author: Donghai Futures
Research report text
background analysis:
External Market: On November 21, LME nickel opened at US$25385/ton and closed at US$25140/ton, down 1.82% from the previous trading day’s closing price of US$25605/ton.
Spot market: On November 21, Russian nickel rose to 2,300 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton; Jinchuan rose to 4,800 yuan/ton, up 900 yuan/ton; BHP semi nickel edged up to 1,800 yuan/ton, unchanged.
Basic logic:
Shanghai nickelThe main force 2212 closed yesterday afternoon at 197130 yuan/ton, down 0.94%. Grossly, US retail sales in October increased 1.3% MoM, the fastest growth rate in eight months. As of Nov. 12, the US has filed 222,000 initial applications for unemployment benefits, a figure unexpectedly lower than the previous value and expectations, and is still in history At a low, Fed officials are mowing, and interest rate hike expectations are still repeated.
In terms of news, Indonesia has proposed to Canada to establish an OPEC-like group of nickel producers to coordinate and complement nickel mining policies. Indonesia and Canada are the largest and sixth largest producers respectively nickel world.
Basically, the supply of pure nickel has been increasing year by year in China; foreign production in the third quarter recovered year on year but production capacity was still limited. The demand for pure nickel is high, military alloys only need to be purchased, the demand for civilian alloys is small, nickel-soluble nickel sulfate is not cheap, the profit loss of stainless steel production is small, and the production is reduced.
WBMS data shows that from January to September this year, the global nickel market experienced a supply surplus of 10,500 tonnes, compared to a shortage of 180,300 tonnes last year. Inventory, the Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel warehouse revenue yesterday was 1,300 tons, which was extremely low, and the ratio of virtual to real orders was extremely high; LME nickel inventories stood at 49,470 tonnes, still showing a slow destocking trend. To sum up, the optimism has faded, but the risk of capital disruption from tight inventories still exists and we still need to be cautious when going short.
Operation Tip:Shock, wait and see.
Risk factors:Demand is below expectations, accumulation exceeds expectations and geopolitical risks.
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