“Stagnation of MVNOs and the Latest Happenings in the Affordable Smartphone Market”

On April 6th, MMD Research Institute held an event titled “Let’s talk about the ‘past’ and ‘future’ of the MVNO market.” After announcing the latest survey data for 2023 by the MMD Research Institute, a panel discussion was held with the business managers of the three MVNOs of mineo, AEON Mobile, and NURO Mobile.

Investigate market share for main line and sub line

First, regarding MVNO market trends, the MMD Research Institute conducted a questionnaire survey of 36,560 people in February 2023, and the data announced in March was explained by Mr. Koji Yoshimoto, the representative director of the MMD Research Institute.

Docomo, ahamo, au, povo, UQ mobile, Softbank, LINEMO, Y!mobile, Rakuten Mobile, and MVNO were asked about the main line carrier, and MVNO’s share was 9.7%. It is sub-brands that are increasing their share, and it is said that “UQ mobile and Y!mobile have especially increased in the past year and half.”

Online-only plans for ahamo, povo, and LINEMO are also “strongly increasing their market share,” but Rakuten Mobile’s growth stopped after the 0-yen abolition. Since then, the number of contracts seems to have settled down and the number of contracts is increasing, but when looking at the market share, the score is dropping.

Looking at the breakdown of 9.7% share of MVNO, Rakuten Mobile’s MVNO maintained the top share, but in this survey, OCN Mobile ONE became the top share. After that, the order is mineo, IIJmio, and AEON mobile. According to data published by the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, IIJmio has the top share. The difference is that, according to a survey by the MMD Research Institute, “Because we ask you to select the line you are using as the main line in the questionnaire.”

Since the KDDI communication failure in 2022, sub-line has been attracting more attention, and we are also investigating the share of sub-line communication services. Of the 36,560 people, 3,294 had a sub-line, about 10%.

MVNO has a high share of sub-lines at 17.7%. “Rakuten UN-LIMIT used to be strong, but it has calmed down since we abolished 0 yen.” The percentage of povo is also high, 2.4% for the main line, but 7.4% for the sub line, which is higher than ahamo. Mr. Yoshimoto analyzes that “probably it has become a receiver for Rakuten Mobile (people who have canceled the contract).”

However, the oligopoly of the four MNOs has not changed over the past year. The share of each company’s main brand, sub-brand, and online-only brand is 34.6% to 34.4% for DoCoMo, 26.4% to 26.7% for KDDI, 22.5% to 21.8% for Softbank, and 9.5% to 9.0% for Rakuten Mobile. All together, the rate has changed little from a year ago, from 92.0% to 91.9%.

However, a closer look reveals that the share of the main brands (Docomo, au, Softbank, and MNO Rakuten Mobile) is declining. As a result, the numbers for online-only plans and sub-brands have increased.

Is it true that MVNO growth is declining?

MMD Research Institute is also investigating the market share of MVNOs. While prefaced by Mr. Yoshimoto, “as a common tone,” consumer MVNO line share has been declining after peaking from 2019 to 2020, and has been flat or slightly decreasing recently. Instead, he explained that IoT and B2B are growing while showing graphs. However, he says, “Actually, there is a trick to this.”

One of the reasons the numbers are down in 2020 is because UQ mobile was calculated as an MVNO at the time. Since it was absorbed by KDDI in October 2020, the research company has since included UQ mobile’s figures in MNO data. “It’s true that MVNO’s share has declined, but the reality is that UQ mobile has been removed from MVNO and changed its record to MNO.”

If UQ mobile continues to be included in MVNO, the graph will be slightly upward as shown in the figure below.

Another factor is Rakuten Mobile’s entry into the mobile phone business as an MNO. Rakuten Mobile, an MVNO, is counted as an MVNO as it is, but since many users migrated to MNO, it is a factor in the decline in the MVNO market share.

If Rakuten Mobile, an MNO, and Y!mobile, a sub-brand, are added to the market share of MVNOs as “cheap smartphones,” the graph below is obtained.

Furthermore, considering online-only plans as “low-price plans” in the same category as MVNOs and sub-brands, adding figures for ahamo, povo, and LINEMO results in the figure below.

Looking at MVNO alone, it is true that the net decrease or leveling off is true, but “Users do not think that they will choose MVNO because they The user’s needs of “” have not actually fallen,” Mr. Yoshimoto analyzes.

The graph below shows the market share divided by the main brands and low-priced brands of the three major companies. In 2014, the three major brands had an overwhelmingly high market share of 98.4%, but as of 2023, they have fallen below 60%. It’s not reversed, but you can see that it’s changed quite a bit.