Spread of the corona variant: incidence is falling, delta proportion is increasing

As of: 23.06.2021 7:57 a.m.

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The number of new corona infections is falling steadily, Germany is loosening up and starting the summer vacation. But health experts warn against carelessness: Because the apparently highly contagious Delta variant is spreading.

Despite the overall falling corona numbers, the delta variant of the virus is also on the rise in Germany. Several federal states have reported that the proportion of the variant in new infections has recently increased noticeably. In the evening, the new virus variant report from the Robert Koch Institute is also expected.

Delta expansion in Hesse and Bavaria

According to Health Minister Kai Klose (Greens), the delta variant already accounts for more than a fifth of new infections in Hesse. In Bavaria, the number of confirmed infections with the Delta variant has almost doubled in the course of a week – from 132 to 229 cases, as State Chancellor Florian Herrmann (CSU) announced.

The “Apotheken Umschau” reports that the mutation is becoming more and more common in Bavaria. The Becker & Kollegen laboratory community with various locations in the Free State has clear evidence of this: It was able to assign eleven percent of the SARS-CoV-2-positive smears that the laboratory had between June 8 and 13 to the delta variant. In the period from June 14 to 20, the proportion of mutations was already 24.6 percent. As a rule, the Robert Koch Institute publishes figures on virus variants for Germany once a week. The most recent information available so far is from June 16 and relates to the week between May 31 and June 6: The proportion of the delta variant was 6.2 percent.

“Our current findings indicate that the delta variant is now spreading. It is evidently displacing other virus variants in the spirit of a fast-moving evolution,” explains Professor Jürgen Durner, specialist in laboratory medicine and Chief Medical Officer of Becker & Kollegen, of the journal . The alpha variant (formerly British variant), which in the past few months usually made up more than 90 percent of the SARS-CoV-2 pathogens, is now in decline and is increasingly being replaced by the delta variant.

Starting position in Germany is favorable

The virologist Christian Drosten pleads in view of the development for even more speed in vaccination. In the NDR podcast “Coronavirus Update”, the expert from the Berlin Charité did not specify whether there could be a trend reversal in the number of new infections in the summer or in autumn due to the spread of the delta variant. In the fall, however, the incidence will definitely rise again, said Drosten and emphasized the importance of the vaccination for parents of school children.

“We just have to vaccinate quickly,” is the virologist’s appeal. According to the estimation of the virologist Drosten, a full vaccination also protects the Delta variant against severe disease. The protection provided by the first vaccination is considered to be weaker compared to the effect against earlier virus forms. This is also what SPD health expert Karl Lauterbach assumes. Further vaccination campaigns are urgently needed.

Incidence continued to fall

Drosten said that if the vaccination campaign was not enough, it would have to be countered again with contact restrictions. “But there are also good reasons to think that this will not be necessary in Germany.” In England, where the corona situation has worsened again due to the delta variant, the seven-day incidence rose again from a level of 25. “You hadn’t slowed down as far as we’ve already done in Germany.”

The German health authorities reported 1016 new corona infections to the Robert Koch Institute within one day on Wednesday. For comparison: a week ago the value was 1455 infections. According to the RKI, the seven-day incidence nationwide was 7.2 (previous day: 8.0; previous week: 13.2). The value indicates the infections within a week and 100,000 inhabitants.

“If you don’t get vaccinated, you will get infected”

Federal Minister of Health Jens Spahn (CDU) had recently stated that it was not a question of whether, but when Delta would determine the infection rate in Germany. The chairman of the World Medical Association, Frank Ulrich Montgomery, told the editorial network Germany about the variant: “If you don’t get vaccinated, sooner or later you will be infected with the corona virus.” He called for a stronger approach to “vaccination skeptics and vaccination deniers”: “If we do not convince part of this group of the sense of vaccination, we will not achieve herd immunity.”

Vigilance during the summer vacation

With a view to the mutant, which is spreading further, the health policy spokeswoman for the SPD parliamentary group, Sabine Dittmar, calls for special corona vigilance during the summer holidays. It is imperative to prevent “the infection process from flaring up again in us too”.

“We all deserve a vacation, but I advise against traveling to high-incidence and virus-variant areas,” said Dittmar. Anyone who nevertheless travels there must be aware of the risks for themselves and others. “After all, we can only work together to prevent a new wave of infections from rolling towards us in autumn.”