Among the surprises of the 2020 election, Georgia figures favorably for the Democratic camp. If we add Nevada, Joe Biden’s team can be happy to have conquered territories acquired by Republicans for several electoral cycles.
After a snatch victory for the presidential election, the tightest margin in Georgia’s electoral history, can this state still reserve two surprises for the senatorial elections on January 5? In the event of Republican failures, Joe Biden and his party would control both chambers and the presidency.
In addition to Senate oversight, January’s results will also provide a number of indicators for other issues. While Republican elected officials dominate Georgia’s political life, the Peach State could allow Democrats to win in Washington. How to explain this paradox ?
Strong mobilization
Demographics and the mobilization of progressives are certainly important factors in understanding this year’s results. Activists like Stacey Abrams have gone to colossal efforts to fight vote suppression, register voters and mobilize African-American voters. The latter represented 40% of the electorate, and Joe Biden was supported by more than 70% of them.
The support of the Democratic candidate was particularly diverse. The participation rate of Asian Americans increased by 90% and that of Spanish speakers by 72%. By comparison, the white vote only climbed 16%. Even though current polls indicate that Democratic and Republican candidates for the two Senate seats are neck and neck, a high turnout would favor the former.
Is Donald Trump’s “charm” fading?
If demographic changes and the work of activists associated with Democrats have had an undeniable impact, one can also wonder if the “Donald Trump effect” is still operating. Of course, the president continues to bet on a group of unwavering, but these cannot ensure a victory.
The president’s attitude and recent remarks seem to have had a repelling effect on many Republican voters. By accusing elected Republican members of the state of Georgia of being in cahoots with the adversary, he shocked voters, but also convinced some Republicans to stay at home rather than come to register their preference. What good is a vote if, as Donald Trump claims, the system is so corrupt?
As they reflect on the future of their political formation, Republicans will observe the impact of Donald Trump’s direct participation in election campaigns in Georgia. Two failures could certainly feed a reflection on a possible divorce, and the tongues would loosen a little more.
The elected officials of Grand Old Party still refuse to condemn the rants and disinformation promoted by the president. If I do not believe that the results of January 5 represent a road to Damascus for all of these elected officials, I hope that a significant number of them will return to the real world for the benefit of the majority.
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