While thousands of Russians are leaving their homeland for fear that the war in Ukraine will escalate, Vladimir Putin’s relatives have also begun to move. A month of war has not unexpectedly left its mark, both in Ukraine and in the president’s inner circle.
Speculation has run high that Putin’s support is becoming increasingly limited. US intelligence has already released information that the president has had outbursts of anger against several of his closest in the Kremlin.
For it is not only Russia’s oligarchs who have criticized the ongoing war and Putin’s invasion.
– Brews up to panic
The missing general
The most central of the supporters that the world has tried to find with both binoculars and magnifying glass in recent days, is Minister of Defense Sergei Shoigu. Not only is he a politician and a general, he is also leading Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Now he has apparently been missing without a trace for a long time. The last time Sjojgu was seen in public, the calendar showed March 11. It has not unexpectedly caused speculation to catch fire.
Nor has it helped the rumors that General Valery Gerasimov, the chief of staff, disappeared just as without a trace not long after.
Senior researcher at the Department of Defense Studies (IFS) and the Norwegian Defense College (FHS), Ingvill Moe Elgsaas, tells Dagbladet that it is very difficult to say how credible the information that comes out regarding Putin’s inner circle really is. She refers, among other things, to the Minister of Defense and his apparent disappearance.
– We do not know if Sjojgu himself has withdrawn, or if he has been ignored in any way. If there is punishment, he has not managed to meet expectations, he has had a breakdown – it is completely impossible to say. Some have complained about heart problems, Elgsaas explains.
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She adds that Putin’s spokesman Peskov in connection with the speculation is said to have stated that this is not the right time to be active in the media. Nevertheless, there are many indications that it is important for the Kremlin to silence speculation about Sjojgu’s “disappearance”.
Among other things, the broadcast on Rossija 24 on Thursday was interrupted to show photos from a meeting of the Security Council where Shoigu informed about the “progress” of the “special operation” in Ukraine. In the clip, you can barely make out what should be Shoji on the screen in front of Putin, says Elgsaas.
SENIOR RESEARCHER: Ingvill Moe Elgsaa’s researcher on Russian power elites. Photo: The Armed Forces
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Putin’s job – leaving the country
The missing generals are by no means alone in appearing in speculation about Putin’s seemingly failing core. It has already been confirmed that Anatoly Chubais (66) has quit his job as a climate envoy for the Russian government.
Chubais is said to have gone so far as to leave Russia, in protest against the war in Ukraine.
– What has come out about him is very interesting. He was central in the 90’s and has also held various positions further down the hierarchy since then. If the reports are correct, that he has left Russia and has not thought back, then the timing will indicate that emigration is a result of Putin’s choice of path and therefore in protest against what is happening now, Elgsaas tells Dagbladet.
Here he is trying to recruit
The Russian economist and politician has long been a heavyweight in Russian politics, and is referred to as the architect behind Russia’s post-Soviet economic reforms. He was also the one who got Putin into the Kremlin, and gave the current president his first job in Moscow, according to the Moscow Times.
– It is also reported that Chubais is doing this precisely in protest against the war in Ukraine, without us being able to confirm or deny this. If the information is correct, then he has also chosen the safe way. That is, to simply leave the country in silence and without criticizing Putin publicly, Elgsaas explains.
checkmate
Another well-known Kremlin figure who has been in the media in recent days is Russia’s former vice president and now president of the International Chess Federation (Fide), Arkady Dvorkovich.
Since 2018, he has been chairman of the board of the prestigious Solkovo Foundation – an innovation and technology hub that fronts itself as Russia’s Silicon Valley. But after publicly speaking out against the Russian war in Ukraine and saying that his thoughts go to the Ukrainian civilians, he was accused of being a “national traitor”, writes Reuters.
Last week it was announced that he was resigning. Chairman Igor Shuvalov announced that he “could no longer combine the position with the top role in Fide”.
– Will change the war completely
– Safer at the top
Whether Putin’s inner circle will crack and supporters fall away remains to be seen. According to Elgsaas, it is always possible for someone to resign, but it will probably be exceptional and individual rather than collective. That view is also shared by Russia researcher at the Norwegian Institute of Foreign Policy (Nupi), Jakub M. Godzimirski.
– Can Tsjubaj’s defection make the ball start to roll?
– That may be the case, but I do not expect the most central figures around Putin to leave the ship. They have committed the atrocities that are going on. It is also difficult to believe that people who have built up their entire career around Putin will suddenly now change sides and focus on something completely different, Godzimirski tells Dagbladet.
Elgsaas also shares this view.
It is Putin or no one for those closest to him in politics. No matter how bad it is so far, you are in a more vulnerable position if you choose to distance yourself from Putin. If you have the choice between being in the upper layer of the system or outside the system, then you are safer at the top – and it will be perceived as a betrayal if you are in a close circle and then go out. Loyalty is important to Putin and they know it around him, she explains.
Godzimirski, however, points to one person close to Putin who may be on the verge:
It is Russia’s former finance minister, now head of the Russian Office of the Auditor General, Alexei Kudrin. There is a person in Putin’s closest circle who I think can counter. During his tenure as prime minister, he went on to say that Russia must stop straining relations with the West, since it has cost the Russian economy so much.
– He has been sitting still in the boat for the time being, says the Nupi researcher.
RUSSIA EXPERT: Jakub M. Godzimirski has worked with Russian foreign and security policy for over 20 years. Photo: Nupi
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Potential heirs?
As speculation about Putin and his inner circle continues, it is easy to believe that heirs will also be launched in a row. According to senior researcher Elgsaas, however, there is no guarantee of that.
“If it were to be announced that someone would be Putin’s or someone else’s heir to the political tops, I would be very skeptical about whether it is real,” she says.
To stick your head out with power ambitions in that way in Russia can be risky:
– If rumors arise about someone who wants a higher political position, then there is a greater chance that it is an attempt to get rid of the person than that it is actually an attempt to get up and down, says Elgsaas.
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