Mexico City. Specialists consulted by the Bank of Mexico (BdeM) predicted that general inflation will close below what they had estimated; However, they also cut their economic growth expectations for both this and next year.
According to the “Private Sector Economic Specialists’ Expectations Survey: September 2024,” the 2024 gross domestic product will be 1.46 percent, a decrease from 1.60 percent forecast a month earlier. For 2025 the cut was from 3.72 to 3.70 percent.
Regarding inflation, the specialists consulted by the central bank lowered their general estimate from 4.64 to 4.44 percent for the last quarter of 2024, while for the last quarter of 2025 they maintained it at 3.80 percent.
The specialist expectations survey – presented monthly by the BdeM – does not offer explanations or reasons for the movements, it simply gives the forecasts.
Regarding the estimates of the central institute’s reference rate, specialists consider that it will close 2024 at a level of 10 percent from the current 10.50; while by the end of 2025 they predict that it will drop to 8 percent.
For the exchange rate, they moved the forecast from 19 pesos per dollar to 19.66 pesos per greenback for 2024, while for 2025 they moved it from 19.60 to 19.81.
In the labor market, specialists were less optimistic for the remainder of the year and for next year, since for 2024 they cut their estimate of formal jobs from 485 thousand to 450 thousand; Meanwhile, by 2025 they increased it from 450 thousand to 400 thousand.
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