Alberto Feijóo, leader of the Partido Popular, addresses his supporters in Madrid on Sunday evening. The PP won the elections, but the hoped-for majority by working with the extreme right did not materialize.Image AFP
Opinion polls had just predicted a shift to the right, a major victory for the conservative Partido Popular (PP) which might form a coalition with the far-right Vox. For the first time since the end of the Franco dictatorship in 1975, the extreme right knocked at the gates of power again. But the right did not get a majority, mainly due to Vox’s big loss.
The new Cortes, the Spanish House of Representatives, is even so divided that it is also difficult to find support for a right or left minority cabinet. This threatens a stalemate that may lead to new elections, as happened in 2015 and 2019. But first the left and the right will feverishly try to form a government anyway.
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What options do the parties have? The four scenarios in a row.
Scenario 1: a right-wing majority
“I am very proud,” said PP leader Alberto Nunez Feijóo on Sunday evening. He achieved a major victory: the Partido Popular went from 89 to 136 seats and became the largest party in Spain. Ally Vox disappointed, however, losing 19 of its 52 seats. Many right-wing voters favored the Partido Popular. Moreover, Vox seems to have overplayed its hand with radical positions on climate, abortion and same-sex marriage.
An absolute majority requires 176 of the 350 seats in the Cortes. The Partido Popular and Vox get stuck at 169. An alternative is a minority cabinet that is tolerated by regional parties. However, that route seems impossible. Vox and the regional parties have excluded each other. As the fiercest advocate of the Spanish unitary state, Vox even wants to ban the separatist parties. For example, Feijóo threatens to be left empty-handed, despite his victory.
Scenario 2: a left-wing majority
“The reactionary bloc of PP and Vox has been defeated,” incumbent Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez of the centre-left PSOE (Partido Socialista Obrero Espanol) exulted on Sunday. “No pasaran!” cried his supporters, the battle cry of the Civil War. “They don’t pass.”
Sanchez’ gamble paid off. After a heavy defeat of the PSOE in the local and regional elections in May, he called early elections. He hoped for a shock effect among left-wing voters: the (extreme) right had to be stopped.
The PSOE won 2 seats, the radical left party Sumar (in which Sanchez’s coalition partner Podemos has been absorbed) lost slightly. Together, PSOE and Sumar won 153 seats. Unlike the right, however, they can hope for the support of regional parties, which have also tolerated Sánchez’s minority cabinet for the past four years. This would bring them to 173 seats.
To survive a vote of confidence, Sánchez must also ensure that Junts per Catalunya, the separatist party of Carles Puigdemont, abstains from voting. This would put the Catalans in the position of kingmaker. Junts has already announced that it will set high standards. There is talk of a new referendum on independence. A deal with Junts is difficult: the party has voted consistently against the Sánchez government for the past four years. In addition, Sánchez would have to make a deal with the party of a man who is on the run from Spanish justice. “Feijóo wins election but Puigdemont could make Sánchez prime minister,” headlined the right-wing newspaper El Mundo on Sunday.
Scenario 3: an agreement between PP and PSOE
Feijóo called on the PSOE on Sunday to allow for a PP minority government by abstaining from the vote of confidence. That happened earlier in 2016: the PSOE helped PP leader Mariano Rajoy to power to break a stalemate. However, the chance of recurrence is minimal. In the election campaign, Sánchez repeatedly rejected this possibility.
Scenario 4: new elections
New elections are the most likely option, according to many observers. Nothing new either. When the December 2015 elections failed, a new round followed in June 2016. In 2019, Spaniards went to the polls twice, in April and November. The electoral drama only ended when Sánchez gained the confidence of the Cortes in January 2020, with a minimal majority: 167 votes in favour, 165 against and 18 abstentions.
Sunday’s result underlines once again how divided, fragmented and polarized Spain is. It is difficult to find a workable formula in a mosaic of left, right and regional parties. The political crisis is inconvenient for the EU. This year Spain is presiding. The outgoing government of Pedro Sánchez is well established in Brussels, but the political uncertainty in Madrid will not benefit the Spanish presidency’s clout.
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2023-07-24 16:36:14
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