Compared to the market’s expectations about the exchange rate we started going last autumn, the decision is relative very surprised. At that time, there was a feeling that there were reasons they are not for a strong crown and they just won’t be.
What a gym crowns stand? To the heads of the shopkeepers foreign exchange market of course none of us can see. D se nothing to estimate the shift crowns to strong values observed in the last weeks is the most sleep sms pechodnho vkyvu (danho monou nzkou liquidity after Novm a year) and a fundamental shift to strengths values
Besides, there is an ever-so-slight shift in rhetoric NB towards power outside rates in the case of strong pro-inflationary pressure due to high government income or high interest rates salary. This weight in the minds of foreign exchange traders could have increased in the end of January, when there were reports of significant interannual growth salary v prmyslu i ve construction industry za losk listopad. Nedvn komente nkterch len banking council indicate the minimum possibility of survival rates at the present level, according to, not for now, the forecast itself indicates NB.
Kind of away comparative cost of one-year crops annual rates (IRS) na euro a crowns but it only indicates that there is a significant decrease in the level of demand esk crowns he died, he never got burned to the ground.
Another fundamental factor should be the trend eskch companies v minulch mscch erpat free dominant in euros and the consequent demand sent companies after korunch.
And in this factor there is a question: pesun companies k eurovm vrm perhaps it will gradually cease as the gap between the years will close crown and euros and how the circuit will change companieswhich will pass in the banks my body exchange rate risk.
Fallback course correction over 24 crowns for euro therefore, it should not surprise us in the next few weeks or months.
Michal Skoepa, analyst esk spoitelny
esk spoitelna is a bank with the most traditions on the esk market. For 200 years, it has been one of the fundamental pillars of the Czech banking system. Currently, 4.7 million clients provide services for piblin. Since 2000, it has been part of the international financial group Erste Group Bank.
More information at: www.csas.cz
