The Spanish national team is back in action at the Paris 2024 Olympic Games. Sergio Scariolo’s boys recovered their best form on a day that was almost a toss-up. The same goes for Greece, who now see their chances of reaching the quarter-finals reduced. Not so for Spain, which are growing exponentially.
It should be noted that the top two teams in the group will certainly make it through, and perhaps the third. Of the three groups, only the two best third-placed teams will make it to the quarter-finals. The balance of wins and losses will be important, but also the difference in points. Right now, Spain is 1-1 after losing 12 points to Australia and beating Greece 7 points. Canada’s victory against Australia (93-83) leaves everything open for the third and decisive day.
The Spaniards depend on themselves and can finish first, second, third or last. Below are all the options:
All the options for the national team on the last day
Spain will be first if they beat Canada and Greece can beat Australia. If the Oceanian team wins, to finish top of their group, the team would have to win by 15 or more points. They could also be first by winning by 14, although to do so they would have to score at least 94 points or, if they finish at 93, Australia would have to win by no more than six against Greece.
Spain will be second if it beats Canada by 12 or 13 points and Australia beats Greece. If the team wins by 14, it will be second if it scores 92 or fewer points in its match or, if it finishes with 93, Australia wins by at least eight points against Spanoulis’ team.
Spain will be third if they lose to Canada and Australia beat Greece or if the Greek team beats the Oceanic team by just one point. If Greece wins by two points, they will be third if Spanoulis’ team scores, at most, 86 points. Also if Greece wins by 17 (and Australia scores at most 71 points) or by 18 or more points. In the case that Spain beats Canada by up to 11 points and Australia beats Greece, they will also finish in this position.
Spain will be 4th if they lose to Canada and Greece win by between 3 and 16 points. If Greece win by two points, they will be eliminated if Spanoulis’ team scores 88 or more points, and if it is by 17 points, if Australia scores at least 73.
Tiebreaker criteria at the Olympic Games
If two or more teams finish with the same number of wins and losses, the games played between the teams involved will determine the final position. In the case of a multiple tie, the first tie-breaker will be the average in the games between the teams involved. If the tie remains, the team that has scored more points in the games between those teams involved will be considered. If the tie continues, the determining factor will be the overall average of the group and if this does not break the tie, it will be the points scored in all the games of the group. If the tie remains, the classification will be determined by the FIBA ranking.
With an eye on the rest of the groups
If Spain finishes first or second, it will go straight to the quarterfinals, but if it finishes third, it will have to see how the other two third-place teams finish. It would need to be one of the two best, either by better record or, in the case of a tie, by better basket-average. Groups B and C have not yet played the second round, so it is too early to know who these possible rivals to watch could be.
Logic, however, dictates that the third-placed team that may have the toughest time is the one in Group C. Having to face two of the tournament’s big favourites, Serbia and, above all, the United States, it is likely that Puerto Rico or South Sudan (everything points to the Africans finishing above the Central Americans after beating them in the first match) could concede a number of points that would condemn them if they had to play off a tiebreaker with other third-placed teams. Therefore, with regard to Spain, if they stumble against Canada, it will be by the lowest number of points possible.
