Did these elections strengthen the separatists?
For the first time, independence won a little over 50% of the vote. Since 2010, he had won the majority of seats in parliament, thanks to an electoral system favoring rural areas, but had never been able to achieve a majority of votes. This is an important step. This victory must be qualified by the low participation (53%), the lowest since the end of Francoism.
In addition, for the first time since 2017, the hard line led by Carles Puigdemont (Junts per Catalunya party, JxC) comes in third position, behind the socialists in favor of the unity of Spain, and the independence left (ERC ) in favor of resuming dialogue with Madrid.
Will the next Catalan government be secessionist?
The three separatist parties hold the absolute majority with 74 seats out of 135. All are committed to supporting such a government if this majority emerges. Logically, Pere Aragonès, ERC candidate, will therefore be invested with the support of the right JxC and the far left CUP. However, these two parties will set their conditions and the negotiations could last for weeks or even months. On Sunday February 14, Aragonès also reached out to Podemos, who is against independence but supports the right to self-determination.
Can socialist Illa also try to form a government?
Still Spanish Minister of Health at the beginning of January, Salvador Illa succeeds in reaching the top (23%), unheard of since 1999. And doubling the number of socialist seats in parliament (33). To mark the occasion, he wants to propose his nomination, but his support will not be enough.
Is the far right also the big winner?
With eleven seats, Vox made a sensational entry into parliament. It becomes the 4e political force in the region, far ahead of the conservatives of the Popular Party (three seats) and the liberals of Ciudadanos (six). Vox has managed to quickly replicate his success across Spain since he burst into the Andalusian parliament in 2018, entered the national parliament in 2019, and then into numerous regional parliaments.
, observes political scientist Martin Szulman.
Non-existent ten years ago, the extreme right is therefore settling in the Spanish political scene.
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