SPACE — The European Space Agency (ESA) said the possibility of a newly discovered asteroid falling to Earth on February 14, 2046 is slim. That Astorid has the potential to wipe out a large city.
The asteroid, which is designated 2023 DW and is about 50 meters in size, was first spotted by a small Chilean observatory on February 26, 2023. 2023 DW has quickly shot up to the top of NASA and ESA’s list of asteroids that pose a potential danger to Earth.
It made worrying headlines. A number of people warned against canceling their Valentine’s plans on February 14, 2046.
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Last February, the asteroid had a 1:847 chance of hitting Earth. However, according to the ESA’s risk register, the odds rise to 1:432 on Sunday, March 13, 2023.
Most recently, ESA’s Head of Planetary Defense Office, Richard Moissl said, the probability of hitting Earth fell to 1:1.584. “It will drop on each observation to zero in a few days at the latest,” he told AFP on Tuesday, March 14, 2023.
“No one needs to worry about this thing,” he said.
NASA on Tuesday also lowered the probability of a collision to 1:770. This means that there is a 99.87 percent chance that the asteroid will miss Earth.
“We tended to be a bit more conservative, but it seems there is now a downward trend,” NASA planetary defense officer Lindley Johnson told AFP.
He said it was only natural that the chance of a newly discovered asteroid’s impact would go up before rapidly falling. This is because the new observations shrink the area of uncertainty into which the asteroid will travel at its closest point to Earth.
While Earth is still within that uncertainty region, the probability temporarily increases, until further observations exclude Earth and the probability drops to zero. “As expected will happen in 2023 DW,” he said.
What if the asteroid hits Earth?
A scientist at NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies, Davide Farnocchia said, the proper comparison for the impact of an asteroid if it hits the earth is the Tunguska event. In that event, a similarly sized asteroid is believed to have exploded in the atmosphere over a sparsely populated area of Siberia in 1908.
“The resulting explosion flattened trees over an area of about 2,000 square kilometers,” said Farnocchia. While London covers an area of about 1,600 square kilometers.
Moissl said the 2023 DW asteroid would create regional devastation. However, it will not have a major impact on life around the world.
The asteroid, which orbits the Sun, came about nine million kilometers from Earth during its last closest approach on February 18, 2023, a week before it was discovered. According to estimates, if it hits Earth in 2046, it will travel at about 15 kilometers per second.
There would be about a 70 percent chance it landed in the Pacific Ocean. “But a potential strike zone also includes the United States, Australia or Southeast Asia,” said Moissl.
Plan to deflect asteroid 2023 DW
Even if an asteroid is heading our way, experts stress that the world is no longer resigned to such a threat. Last year, NASA’s DART spacecraft intentionally crashed into the pyramid-sized asteroid Dimorphos, significantly knocking it down in the first test of our planet’s defense.
Farnocchia said the DART mission gave NASA confidence that such a mission would be successful against DW 2023, if needed. “With 23 years of preparation time, there is enough time for such a mission to be planned,” said Moissl.
ESA’s Hera mission, which is slated to launch next year to examine DART damage to Dimorphos, could even be reused for DW 2023 reconnaissance if necessary. Such a plan will not be considered until the probability of impact passes 1:100. If such a likelihood number appears, it will receive the attention of UN-backed agencies such as the International Asteroid Warning Network and the Space Mission Planning Advisory Group (SMPAG).
SMPAG’s goal is to gather everyone in the same place and avoid mass extinctions as has happened in a number of films. “Don’t Look Up, for example, where stupid things happen because countries don’t coordinate with each other,” said Moissl.
But such defense mechanisms do not appear to be necessary for DW 2023. “Everyone should relax, ignore sensationalist headlines and stories, and pay attention to how this situation plays out,” said NASA’s Johnson. Nevertheless, he said, the planetary defense community will continue to look up! Source: Phys.org
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