The agency Standard&Poor’s kept Italy’s rating unchanged at ‘BBB’ but revised the outlook raised to ‘positive, from’ stable ‘, motivating the decision with the estimate of “a strong investment-led recovery in 2021 and 2022, which will bring Italian GDP back above the levels of 2019 one year ahead of our forecasts “. For S&P “the broad majority of the Draghi government is expected to ensure the implementation at the end of 2021 of the 51 goals and objectives included in the ambitious National Recovery and Resilience Plan“. The ongoing negotiations raise some doubts in analysts “to allow an acquisition of the Monte dei Paschi di Siena“, Which today belongs to the Treasury,” by another large Italian bank “, Unicredit: “An agreement would almost certainly require a significant capital injection by the Italian state, representing a potential risk tax “.
S&P expects Italian real GDP growth to stand at 6%, followed by + 4.4% in 2022, with a deficit of 8.8% of GDP compared to the 9.4% target set by the government, as revenues continue to exceed forecasts. Hence the decision to hike “following the clear strengthening of the commitment to reforms in favor of growth and the positive effects that greater growth will have on public accounts ”. The driving factors behind this “sustained growth” – which can return “to figures not seen since 1973”- are high rates vaccination, elevated savings private, improvement of confidence of businesses and households, generous EU funds e sightseeing in recovery. On the public accounts front, however, the agency does not foresee a return to a surplus primary until 2025, while after the 8.8% deficit estimated for this year, the deficit should be reduced to 5.8% in 2022.
The debt net public at the end of 2021 will amount to 144.8% of GDP (excluding the EFSF guarantees) but “despite the increase in the debt / GDP ratio, interest expenditure as a percentage of GDP continues to decline“: If in 2012 it was over 5% in 2021 it is expected to be 3.2% and” considering that the Italian Treasury continues to refinance debt maturing at around 0.1%, well below the 2.35% average rate paid on total debt, we believe GDP interest spending will fall below 3.0% by 2022 ″.
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