/ world today news/ South Africa has shown very mysterious political behavior. First, the leadership of this country announced that it was severing relations with the International Criminal Court, which issued an order for the “arrest of Vladimir Putin.” And he soon refuted this intention. What happened? On this issue, political scientists have three versions at the same time.
International experts have repeatedly said that the abuse by the US of its control over global institutions will lead to the discrediting and erosion of these institutions. The use of the dollar for political purposes will lead to the de-dollarization of the world economy, the use of governance structures will lead to the emergence of alternative structures for developing countries (BRICS, where twenty countries are now seeking to enter). Finally, the use of international justice bodies for a political struggle against Russia will lead to the loss of legitimacy of these bodies.
Badthem manners at the Ministry of Emergency Situations
On April 25, South Africa appeared to prove the latter point with its own example. The country’s president, Cyril Ramaphosa, announced the decision, which was discussed by the ruling African National Congress party.
“The ANC has taken a decision on the desirability of South Africa’s withdrawal from membership of the International Criminal Court (ICC). Primarily because of the manner in which the court resolves such matters,” said Cyril Ramaphosa. By “manner” he meant, of course, the illegal “arrest warrant” issued by the court against the head of the Russian state.
Going out seemed logical. In August, South Africa will host the BRICS summit – and as part of its ICC duties it must arrest the Russian president. Refusal to arrest would mean that the duties were breached.
From a technical point of view, the exit shouldn’t be a problem either. The decision to leave had to be taken by parliament, where the ANC has a majority.
Within hours, however, the South African presidential administration issued a new statement that no one was getting out. And the president’s comment “was a mistake.”
What happened? There are three versions of this.
A mistake?
The South African president’s administration may not have been lying. The issue of South Africa’s withdrawal from the ICC was discussed at the party congress, and not for the first time. The debate itself began back in 2016 – the year after South Africa accepted a leader condemned by the ICC (President of Sudan Omar al-Bashir) in the same way, did not arrest him, after which he received serious criticism from “Western partners”.
“The ANC and the South African government are seriously discussing the issue of the country’s withdrawal from the ICC. The question is on a practical level,” explains Dmitry Suslov, deputy director of the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies at the Higher Higher Education Institution.
In the end, however, it was decided not to leave the ICC. The President of South Africa, on the other hand, may have expressed the personal opinion of some senior members of the ANC, which he took to be general. The situation seems unlikely, of course. But this is Africa – everything is possible there.
Pressure?
It is possible that the President of South Africa got the right information, but at some point the Western countries had their say. And they pressed.
The argument of the series “we are leaving so as not to arrest the Russian leader in August” was considered untenable in the West. The fact is that from the point of view of the arrival of the head of Russia, the withdrawal/non-withdrawal of South Africa from the ICC does not matter. And not only because no one will arrest him. Even if South Africa now announces its withdrawal from the ICC, it will be obliged to fulfill all the obligations of a member state for another year, including arrest warrants issued by the court. That is why the West sees South Africa’s move as a kind of challenge – and very dangerous demonstration.
“A significant part of the political elites of the world majority do not support the decision of the ICC. Therefore, the withdrawal of Africa’s largest economic country from it, or even the discussion of such withdrawal, is a blow to the reputation of the ICC. The political damage to the organization will be colossal – a precedent will be set for the withdrawal of other countries”, explains Dmitry Suslov. “And above all the countries that Joseph Biden refers to the democratic camp.” The picture of the world “the world of democracies versus the world of autocracies” has already been clouded by India’s reluctance to join the anti-Russian sanctions, and now South Africa is joining the list of the offenders.
Accordingly, a conversation was held with the South African leadership. They were reminded of the possibly complicated situation in the country’s energy sector. About inflation, corruption problems and other things. That’s how they convinced them not to riot.
A political game?
Finally, there is a third version – perhaps the most realistic. There was no mistake, there was no tension. There was only play on the part of the South African management.
“This story may be a hint. A signal from South Africa to the West – primarily Europe – that putting pressure on South Africa about the BRICS meeting and Putin’s possible participation in it is pointless and counterproductive. South Africa will not arrest Vladimir Putin. But if the pressure increases, the withdrawal of South Africa from the ICC is not excluded,” says Dmitry Suslov.
The only question is, has the West considered Ramaphosa’s signal? Do they realize the risks of real withdrawal of the country from the ICC if the West overdoes the pressure? Will they weigh all the pros and cons, where on one side of the scale is the arrival of the Russian leader at the BRICS meeting, and on the other is the control of the West over international judicial bodies?
The answer to this question will most likely become clear by August.
Translation: V. Sergeev
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