Four weeks before the election, the race for the Chancellery in Berlin could not be more exciting: a study by the Forsa Institute for RTL and N-tv showed that for the first time in 15 years, the German Social Democratic Party (GSDP) is ahead of the Union. CDU / CSU).
According to a poll conducted on August 17-23 among 1,532 respondents, not only could Olaf Scholz become Germany’s new chancellor, but the Social Democrats could become the first force in the Bundestag.
This is an almost historic development of the situation, which the candidate for Chancellor of the Social Democratic Party Olaf Scholz has won in recent weeks: from 14% in June, his rating as of August 24 is now 23%. 22% of those polled expressed support for the Union (CDU / CSU).
Thus, in addition to the so-called traffic light coalition (GSDP-SvDP and “Greens”), a red-red-green coalition is possible (GSDP-“Left” – “Greens”). Both Scholz and Green candidate Analena Burbock did not rule out a similar scenario.
The “free fall” of the Conservatives and the Greens continues unhindered. The Union (CDU / CSU) collapsed again by one percent, reaching a historic low of only 22 percent, the lowest level since 1984. This is mainly due to the unpopularity of Armin Lashet, because only one in ten (11%) respondents would like the HDZ leader to become chancellor. The decline is 12% – in just six weeks.
And the Greens can’t stop losing popularity either. The party of Analena Burbock and Robert Habek fell by one percent compared to the previous week to 18%. In April, environmental activists enjoyed the approval of 26% of German voters.
There are more warning signals for the Union (CDU / CSU). According to the RTL / N-tv survey, only a third (29%) of CDU supporters believe that Armin Lashet can still turn things around. 57% believe that he will not be able to win any more voters.
In the camp of the sister party HSS, these figures are even clearer. There, almost two-thirds of the party’s supporters surveyed no longer believe that Armin Lashet can still reach the Chancellery.
RTL political analyst Nikolaus Bloom assessed the situation dramatically. “There is finally a fire under the” roof “of the CDU / HSS. If the current trend (for the Social Democrats to gain support and overtake the CDU) hardens for another week or two, it will be very difficult to reverse it before election day.
This is a situation known from many previous elections: many voters who have not yet decided who they will vote for choose the party that looks like the sure winner – and this further increases the leader’s lead. ”
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