/ world today news/ Many times, both in the media and on Facebook, I have spoken, described, analyzed and discussed the economic and social drama of Bulgaria.
These days, “lost” in debates about the “toilets of the rulers”, we once again forget that these parliamentary elections are about much more vitally important, more worrying and longer-term things that affect the present and future of Bulgaria as a whole.
I want to present to you the picture of economic Bulgaria as it looks today.
Sales (turnover) have continued to decline for over 36 consecutive months now. Only compared to last year (February versus February) with calendar adjusted data, we have a new decline in turnover in retail trade by over 3.3%.
For April 2013, by my calculations (the National Stats have not yet released their data), the decline continues at around 3.6% from February 2013.
Sales of small and medium-sized businesses, at seasonally adjusted prices, fell by more than 10.5%, compared to March 2012.
Exports are generally declining.
A record unemployment rate continues to persist, which officially, according to national statistics, is over 12.4-12.5%. In the EU, with this unemployment, we rank right after Spain, Greece and Lithuania. In the countryside of Bulgaria, all business has come to a standstill.
Regardless of the data of the national statistics on the growth of construction production, I do not see any stable signs of improvement in the real estate market in Bulgaria, considering the incredibly risky and fragile economic conditions and the continuing burden of the mass of unsold apartments.
Overall, I think house prices will continue to fall in the next 3-4 years. This drop will reach a minimum of 20%.
I do not see much chance of improving the solvency of the vast majority of Bulgarian households, as their purchasing power continues to decline, housing prices decline, their indebtedness remains, and interest rates stabilize.
Impoverishment is expanding at great speed.
Regardless of the false propaganda about the “huge bank deposits” of the Bulgarians, the situation is just socially terrible.
All this means that demand in the country will be severely depressed for a long time to come. With such depressed demand, I do not see how industry and agriculture can quickly recover.
Such stimulating factors are not visible on the European side either, where the European GDP for 2013 looks like it will be around -1.5/2.0%. Europe continues to be mired in a debt and banking crisis, and an increase in European appetite for our goods cannot be expected.
Moreover, the crisis in Europe will intensify even more by the end of this year and throughout 2014.
Due to the general banking crisis in Europe, the credit policy of all foreign banks in our country will be even tighter in terms of lending.
Foreign investments decrease even more.
Bulgaria’s gross domestic product for this year will be around 1-1.2%.
Our monetary policy is impotent, because of the currency board, and the fiscal policy is exhausted at least at one end.
And all the political leaders are silent on this issue.
This is one part of the picture. Not even the scariest part.
No one, no party in their election promises, none of the party candidates for prime minister specifically says:
- In the background of this picture, how will we go after May 12, 2013; with what management measures, with what mechanisms, with what policies, scheduled by month, where will the funds come from?
- Who will be the economic and social performers and magicians?
Until this is said, we will all again remain inside the “dirty workshops” of the “illusion factory” and continue to be cheaply satisfied with low-quality stories about wiretapping, when they will remove Tsvetanov and who “breathes” in Borisov’s toilet.. ..
Continuation of the analysis!
#sober #thoughts #nightmare #live
