The next day in Germany after the expected fall of his government Olaf Solz it depends on the balances that will emerge after the results of the February 23 ballot. In a historic move, the German chancellor called a vote in order to deliberately lose it, essentially asking the Bundestag not to back him with a vote of confidence, but to… relieve him of a task that had ultimately turned out to be “tedious” and for him himself.
After the headlines of the end of the three-party signal coalition – from the colors of the Social Democrats (SPD), the Greens and the Free Democrats (FDP) – the question arises of what needs to be done from now on so that the German economy regains its role of the locomotive of Europe.
The main stake of the upcoming early elections, the fourth in the country’s post-war history, is the management of the economic crisis. The mighty Germany, whose model was projected in Europe as a model of good management, no longer exists. Giants such as Volkswagen and Bosch are closing factories, laying off tens of thousands of workers and, if the period of instability continues after the election, it could lead to irreversible damage to the German economy.
Germany is exposed in multiple ways. Competition from China is constantly intensifying, while the war in Ukraine deprived the German economy of the advantage of cheap energy supply with Russian fuel, setting in motion processes of further deindustrialization. Promises to continue supporting Kyiv create additional fiscal needs, while the arrival of Donald Trump in the White House increases pressure for greater European engagement in Ukrainian and comes with the threat of 10-20% tariffs on European imports from the US.
All this at a time when the far-right party Alternative for Germany (AfD) has registered alarmingly high percentages in the regional elections, which has given it a boost at the national level as well.
The road to the fall
Solz was considered “weak” both at home and abroad. The decision had probably been made for weeks and was simply ratified through the formal process of a vote of confidence. In the 2021 election the SPD won the most seats, but not a majority. He formed a three-party coalition government, Germany’s first in decades, with two smaller parties, the Greens and the FDP liberals. This was the main reason for the instability of the government. The Lib Dems’ conservative economic positions have put them several times at odds with their coalition partners.
In early November, just hours after it became known that Trump would return to the “helm” of the US, the German chancellor appeared before the cameras to announce that his three-party governing coalition was collapsing due to disagreements over spending in the upcoming budget. In the same month came the final break, when Solz dismissed the finance minister and leader of the FDP Christian Lindner following a dispute over debt management. In protest the FDP quit the coalition, leaving Germany with a minority government of the Social Democrats and the Greens at a time of deep economic crisis and geopolitical uncertainty.
Has Mertz’s moment arrived?
Current polls show that Mr Friedrich Mertzleader of its centre-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU/CSU). Angela Merkelis very likely to become Germany’s new chancellor, leading to either a grand coalition with the SDP or some more complicated three-party coalition. So far the CDU is leading the polls with 32%, the AfD is in second place with 18%, the SPD in third with 16% and the Greens are next with 14%.
The 68-year-old Merz’s career in German politics was strongly affected by the rivalry with Merkel, which limited him politically and led to his departure from the Bundestag in 2009. However, Merz made a strong comeback in 2021, taking over the leadership of the CDU.
He has made it his mission to reverse Merkel’s liberalization moves and shift the CDU to the right, turning it towards more conservative positions, particularly on immigration. His views on the matter in question have caused reactions. Typically, he has been criticized for statements such as the reference to “social tourism” by Ukrainian refugees, although he later apologized.
He describes himself as socially conservative and economically liberal. He has been in favor of reducing red tape and taxation for businesses, as well as strengthening Germany as an investment hub. He is an advocate of strengthening NATO and German-American cooperation. He has criticized the Scholz government’s handling of international affairs, stating that Germany should take a more active role in foreign policy.
On the war in Ukraine, which he visited this month, Mertz advocates an even more aggressive approach, including authorizing long-range Taurus missiles to strike Russian soil.
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