MADRID – The latest annual figures from the Spanish Social Security show that the number of contributors of a Social Security premium has risen to 2.39 per pensioner. That is the highest number in the past decade. The same data also shows that the average age of the majority of contributors and the aging of the population will jeopardize this balance in the coming years.
According to Social Security data, the figure in 2022 was the highest since 2011, when there were 2.47 Contributors for every retiree. Looking only at active contributors, those who actually have a job, the ratio is 2.24 employees per retiree, the highest since 2009.
This amount contributors and beneficiaries however, a pension is not guaranteed in the medium and long term, because 33.4% of the active population is between 50 and 64 years old. That means that about 7.5 million workers will retire in the next 17 years. According to the predictions of the Independent Authority for Fiscal Responsibility (AIReF), the retirement of this generation will increase the number of pensioners in Spain to almost 16 million ‘pensionados’ by 2050.
According to the AIReF, Spain will have a labor force of 30 million persons in 2050, a number that has been reduced by the Spanish Statistics Office (INE) to 28 million persons in the labor force. That would mean that in 2025 there will be less than 2 contributors for every retiree, to be precise 1.87 according to AIReF and 1.75 according to INE. The Central Bank of Spain predicts that it will be 2 contributors for every retiree in 2050, compared to the 3 persons that the Banco Central de España now maintains.
In addition, more people die than are born in Spain and the country has had a mortality surplus since 2017, with a difference of 113,023 people in 2022. The number of pensioners will increase in Spain in the coming years, while pensioners will also live longer and will therefore receive a pension for longer.
