A group of North Carolina experts concluded that social distancing and timely medical care remain key measures to curb the spread of COVID-19. in North Carolina.
The team was made up of experts from the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Duke University, RTI International
and other business institutions.
Maintaining social distancing policies like those that exist now will give us the best opportunity to ensure that our healthcare system has sufficient capacity to handle the increasing number of SARS-CoV-2 infections.
, review the report.
Experts also suggested keeping the order to stay home at least until after April 29, although that elevates fifty the probability that the number of those infected will exceed the number of beds installed in the intensive care units of some medical centers.
Report scenarios
The report also outlines two possible scenarios for people infected in North Carolina for the first of June 2020, depending on the public policies that are implemented in each case:
- Scenario 1: Maintain aggressive public policies to limit the transmission of the virus even after the order to stay home ceases, estimating that in this way positive cases will increase to 250,000.
- Scenario 2: Maintain the policies in force until the end of April (date in which the order to stay at home ends), and suspend social distancing some time later, with which an estimated 750,000 positive cases are estimated.
Both scenarios consider probabilities that the capacity of the North Carolina medical system to serve COVID-19 patients will be exceeded, due to limits on supplies, hospital beds and medical personnel.
In the first scenario, an approximate probability of 25 and in the second, of fifty, under the assumption that there is no vaccine for the disease.
Health policy estimates
The report notes that the state can provide two responses to prevent the health care system in North Carolina from collapsing in the face of a spike in COVID-19 cases:
Flatten the curve
positive cases through policies that increase or maintain social distancing and its adoption by the general public, as well as other efforts to slow down the transmission of the virus.- Increase the capacity of the health system to care for infected people.
In both cases, the implementation of activities as they worked before COVID-19 is not predicted in any of the proposed scenarios. Read the full report in English at the following link.
For the latest local and Spanish information on the coronavirus in North Carolina, visit La Noticia.
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