This weekend will bring the best chance of snow so far this season, but if you live in New York City, don’t get too excited. It’s unlikely to be a blockbuster storm in the five boroughs.
Currently, the best chance for snow is most likely north and west of New York City. The immediate metro area most likely will see a mix of rain and snow with possible light accumulations in NYC, northeastern New Jersey, and central and northern Connecticut. The Jersey Shore and South Shore of Long Island could see a lot of rain.
The timeframe for the storm at this point is Saturday night into Sunday, but we expect a more clear timeframe to come into view in the next day or two.
Preliminary look at a snow forecast for this weekend
So how much snow COULD we get?
Storm Team 4 is releasing a preliminary snow map, but it’s important to note since we are still several days out from this storm, the snow forecast numbers could change but this gives you a sense of the general thinking.
Accumulations of up to 3″ is at this point the most likely scenario for the immediate metro area, though some areas on Long Island and the Jersey Shore will see more rain than anything.
Even a shift of 10 to 20 miles could make a big difference in the snow forecast and because we’re so far out from the storm still, the margin of error is closer to 150 miles. A more final forecast will be coming later this week.
Winds near the coast are expected to be strong, with gusts of 30 to 40 miles per hour.
Snow would be quite a change of pace for the tri-state. Central Park has not recorded an inch of snowfall in a single-calendar day since Feb. 13, 2022 — nearly two years ago. At this point, it still looks like any heavy snow will be well north and west of the city this weekend, but there’s still time for the forecast to change depending on the track of the storm.
If you want that heavy snow, or are looking at a ski getaway weekend, you could have some good skiing further inland.
Flooding potential exists in areas seeing rain
Rain could be problematic, too. Winds and waves will keep shore areas at risk for more erosion and perhaps minor coastal flooding. Up to 2 inches of rain are possible south and east of the city by the time the system moves out, escalating the flooding concerns. Check the latest weather alerts for your neighborhood here.
What about the forecast for the rest of this week?
While we await more agreement on the models for this weekend, it will remain clear but cool for the rest of the week. Thursday turns slightly colder than an above-average Wednesday, and Friday looks to start downright frigid.
Another storm could move through in the Tuesday / Wednesday timeframe next week. With temperatures expected to be warm, we’re expecting rain across the area.
2024-01-04 02:35:43
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