The mathematician Prof. Nikolay Vitanov made an analysis of the situation with the coronavirus in our country and the war in Ukraine on March 22. According to the expert, the number of new cases is high today, but the 14-day incidence is still declining. At the same time about the war, he said that the Russians are not in a hurry, they are methodically and without great sacrifices reduce the capacity of the Ukrainian army. Here is what Prof. Vitanov wrote in his personal Facebook profile:
Brief information on the operational situation for the pandemic of March 22, 2022
As always, first the pandemic, then the war. Today is the second day of my two-week suspension of forecasting. I will tell you only the current situation. Let other forecasters speak up. My idiots, my reviewers from Gank’s Cafe. It’s the same – Vitanov gives in to you to make forecasts for a while, you clear the skies and write twice as many negative reviews.
No, it’s not time to gossip now about how I don’t understand anything and how ugly I am. This is not the time for pathetic speeches against Vitanov in the Gankov Cafe. Predict the pandemic and the war. Move me. How many times will I give you a chance? Che, come on. Shift. Jurists will shout at you and will bravely write negative reviews of the capacities in the Gankov Cafe for you. You will learn a lot about yourself that you never suspected. Come on, there are 12 more days.
The situation with the pandemic today.
1. The basic reproductive number – today is 0.93. It is below 1, so the scope of the infection continues to shrink. This is good. The health system continues to unload. “Harry Serdon” is stable. This is the finding. Come on yurts, come on capacities from Gank’s Cafe. What will happen to the “Harry Seldon” script? Will it remain stable? Did the damn Vitanov calculate it so well? Can not be! Come on, predict. Come on – crash, death, 5,000,000 new cases a day. Come on, the people are waiting.
2. No superfire. The number of new cases today is high, but the 14-day incidence is still declining. This is good. Less than 1,500 cases a day, the diffuse spread begins to disappear. If we keep less than 1000 cases a day, the probability of dealing with the modified Omicron is very high. Where we are on this path, you can find out for yourself. We are not safe yet. We are not below 1500 cases per day. Will we fall below 1,500 cases a day? Yurdecheta-a-a-a? As long as you swam in the puddles, forecasts, forecasts, let’s replace the hated Vitanov.
3. No overcrowded hospitals. There are no overcrowded hospitals. Beds that are being transferred to other needs continue to be vacated. No chaos, no overcrowded hospitals.
Will it stay that way? Has the damn Vitanov foreseen this for months? It can’t be that, he doesn’t understand anything. Instead of a review from Gank’s Cafe, write a forecast, drive the incompetent Vitanov into the ground and fame, glory and money flow over you. Come on, it’s up to you now. Vitanov will remain silent for another 12 days.
4. No total lockdown. There is no total lockdown. There won’t be. “Harry Seldon” creates the preconditions for falling restrictions. The green certificate has fallen. Note – exactly within the specified period, which you knew a month in advance. Your promised predictability is there. Bad Vitanov, bad, he doesn’t understand anything. He is here from the cafe and from the puddles, now we will crush him with a super forecast for the year ahead. We’ll give him one Harry Seldon, we’ll even give him five Harry Seldons. Wait, wasn’t that Harry Seldon chips? Or was it ketchup brand?
5. Mortality – is slowly declining. As predicted.
Dirty Vitanov, hey. Now, when we get out of the cafe and meet the yurds from the puddles in front, and when we spit out a forecast and the death rate rises, he will see. And we will become famous and they will give us every day on TV. Yes-a-a-a, Vitanov, poor bastard (I spit on Vitanov well, huh!)
6. Ukrainians and the pandemic – arriving Ukrainians do not raise the incidence. As predicted. You know the upper limit – up to 100,000 Ukrainians a month will not significantly affect morbidity, in the sense of reversing the downward trend.
Here’s what to say. This forecast has already let go of the beard. No other forecasts can be seen from the juridical society and from the Gank Cafe. Come on, Vitanov is silent, you will lose the skinny thing.
7. And so – the social system is still moving on the pre-determined trajectory of the “Harry Seldon” script you announced months ago. Things are under control. Still.
And how they will be in the next two weeks, others who want to predict will tell you. Don’t worry while they illuminate you, I will continue to act. Forecasts and analyzes in full will flow daily to the competent institutions.
And while I am informing the institutions, you are removing me from the public information space. It’s simple – you just have to make better predictions than me.
8. The cards. Since I will not make forecasts, we will drive for two weeks without the map for the estimated 14-day morbidity.
On the risk map, the situation along the Greek border is good today. Calmness means. You know why I’m watching her. What will happen in the coming days will be clarified by other forecasters. Come on, let people know what’s going on
Make them cards. What you don’t try. See how easy they are to color. But did you have to know programming languages? Well, well, a Yiddish language and a few prayers in Gank’s Cafe are enough. What cards will you slap. Let’s see them.
Now for the war. Here already more seriously and with forecasts.
I did not say that I would not make predictions about the war.
1. You know that I was and am one of those who wrote that the war will not be short. It will be 1 month soon, and I wrote to you in 3 months. The processes related to technical and mental refraction are in full swing.
2. Technical refraction.
The Russians are in no hurry, they are methodically and without great sacrifices reducing the capacity of the Ukrainian army. It is time for quantitative changes to turn into qualitative ones. We are looking at the line Mariupol – Kramatorsk – Kharkov.
For now, we are watching Mariupol from it. Did I write to you that the Ukrainian nationalist battalions there will fight to the death? I wrote you. Is that so? It happens. Does anyone care about the civilian population? No. Well, this is war. The city is under siege. Help will not come from anywhere. Why don’t they broadcast it? See below for mental refraction.
Otherwise, the processes of technical refraction are going on. If you notice what messages appear – the Russians hit the Ukrainian repair plants for armored vehicles. Why – clear to reduce the number of available. Remember that Ukraine ranks third in Europe in the number of tanks in its army – after Russia and Turkey. Disabled these tanks is a long process. They are about 2,500, currently 1,500 are out of order. There are many more. This war will not be short, but that is why I wrote to you a long time ago.
3. Mental refraction. Here the Ukrainians are still behaving. I did not expect anything else. But the Russian General Staff did not expect anything else, given the Syrian experience. What follows from this – the suffering of the civilian population in Mariupol. Some will not betray the city, others will destroy it – that’s what I wrote you. Well, some do not want to betray the city, others will demolish it.
4. On the fronts. The main thing here is that the front line is very long and the Russians will try to shorten it so that they can concentrate more technical means per unit length of the front. That is why Ukrainians are stubborn about Mariupol. If he falls, the front line begins to shorten, and this, plus the advancing technological breakdown of the Ukrainian army, does not bode well for the Ukrainian group near Kramatorsk.
Which is sitting there, so that the Russians do not shorten the front completely, that Kharkov will leave. On the other side of the Dnieper, Ukrainian forces are frozen because of the task of protecting Kyiv and Odessa. Bombing is awaited there to reduce the technical capacity of the units, while the Russians clear the area off the east bank of the Dnieper.
This is the situation. Slowly and relentlessly comes the moment when quantitative changes will turn into qualitative ones.
I will not write here what I expect to happen. Interpret it as you see fit. If you think that the Ukrainian army will break the Russian – well, you have the right to think so. If you think that the Russian army will break the Ukrainian – you still have the right to think so.
I will not tell you what to think. You can not even read the technical analysis of the freak Vitanov, right. What you are reading is a freak. He is not a beautiful croaking yurdek with colored feathers, nor a reviewing supercapacity from the Gank Cafe. Because you read this damn Vitanov, I can’t understand. Just get mad at his nonsense. Boycott, yes! Down with Vitanov. And I will not read it.
Come on, enough for today.
I wish you health and success and let the virus surround you. And let the war surround you.
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